this post was submitted on 21 May 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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EU's Green Deal improved its climate performance: a 1.5°C pathway is close (climateactiontracker.org)
submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 20 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Sound like bullshit. We already had +1.45°C last year¹ and even if we completely stopped emitting anything at all, our excessive emissions from the past will certainly cause the temperature to rise over 1.5°C. The emissions path for 1.5°C would need to be negative very soon or maybe even years ago.

¹ https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record

[–] [email protected] 19 points 3 months ago (1 children)

To go into negative emissions we just have to ramp up carbon capture and sequestering...

looks at all the past and current CCS and DAC prototypes so far

Oh no...

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

CCS is right now as feasible as fusion.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You see if we get fusion working we can use that energy to capture carbon... /s

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

That's Star Trek levels of optimism right there.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The average of all estimates are a little above 2.0°C with a ± of 1.5°C or so. And not all these estimates are equally reliable. We can't just take the average of all predictions thinking that's the most likely outcome.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Aren't we already sitting pretty comfortable at about 1.7°C at the moment though?

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 months ago

No. As of right now we have hit 1.5C and 1.7C is the upper limit of current estimates and as such unlikely. However we probably break thorugh that soon as well.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

monkeys are cooking out of the trees in mexico and it's not even the hottest part of summer yet.

1.5c was gone years ago.