Didn’t we all predict that when Boston Dynamics put out that video of their Atlas robot like 8 years ago?
this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2024
10 points (77.8% liked)
Futurology
1854 readers
79 users here now
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Yeah. Talk to me when they can figure out getting tangled in wire while balancing on something wobbly. Boston Dynamics stuff is impressive, but you'll notice the courses are always pristine and very geometric.
Yeah man, so pristine and geometric. (That was 8 years ago, too.)
They did put it in snow, I'll give you that.
Otherwise... yes? Flat ground, unobstructed shelves in good condition, no obstacles besides a few plants below step height, presumably unlimited takes. You'll notice that that was 8 years ago, and they still aren't widely used. Word on the street is there's a reason.
Please watch that video again. That is not flat ground. It’s literally walking over rocks, loose ground, and bumpy terrain. I don’t know why you’ve got a bee in your bonnet about Boston Dynamics, but it’s very weird.
Their other robot, Spot, is used in industrial and research applications, and has sold pretty well. I don’t think Atlas is for sale yet, so that would explain why it’s not widely used.
I don't, it's not just them. They've done the best out of all the robotics companies, as far as I can tell. It's just a hard problem. Even regulated roadways navigated on wheels have proven tricky for machines.
It was covered in snow, how'd you see any of that?
XPrize Foundation founder Peter Diamandis predicts that millions or even billions of robots that look and move like people could integrate into consumers' homes and workplaces, thanks to technological breakthroughs including artificial intelligence and a looming labor shortage. The market for these robots could hit $150 billion by 2035 and as much as $3 trillion by 2050, according to figures cited by Diamandis.
"It's only now, driven by major advances in sensors and actuators, battery technologies and artificial intelligence, that a new generation of useful and affordable robotic labor is within reach," Diamandis wrote in a recent blog post.
Recent advancements in generative AI, the technology that enables applications like ChatGPT, have taken the world by storm. Generative AI "magnifies a robot's adaptability," Damandis writes, by using "reinforcement learning" combined with decision-making algorithms. Plus, robots have the potential to instantaneously share learned skills with others in their network--something humans cannot do.
The market for these robots could be huge. In a 2022 report, Goldman Sachs predicted the market value of humanoid robots in a "blue sky scenario" could hit as much as $154 billion by 2035. Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of investment management firm Ark Invest, sets the bar even higher, at $1 trillion by 2030. Financial services company Macquarie, meanwhile, anticipates a whopping $3 trillion market for humanoid robots by 2050.
Diamandis extolled the utility of a humanoid robot laboror who "operates 24/7, who doesn't need drug testing, and doesn't call in sick from a fight with their boyfriend or girlfriend," in a recent conversation with Inc.
Light detection and ranging sensors, or LiDAR, is the technology that gives sight to autonomous vehicles--and could do the same for humanoid robots. It works by rapidly firing a laser off of surrounding objects, then using a sensor to measure the length of time it takes for the light to travel out and bounce back, according to the National Ecological Observatory Network. These measurements, used for mapping out surroundings, help robots navigate, according to San Jose, California-based LiDAR company Velodyne Lidar. The size and cost of LiDAR units have shrunk 1,000 times and 100 times, respectively, Diamandis writes, making the technology more accessible.
Driving the demand for humanoid robots is a looming labor shortage as Baby Boomers head into retirement with fewer young workers to replace them, Diamandis notes. This could work to the advantage of workers as robots replace less desirable jobs in industries like manufacturing and agriculture. But more than industry is behind Macquarie's massive market predictions. Wendy Pan, an analyst for Macquarie Research in Japan, sees humanoid robots as the next logical step in a long line of technological advances.
"The car helped to shorten people's commute time. I see the purpose as similar for humanoid robots: to shorten people's time spent on housework, making people's lives easier and more convenient," writes Pan.
Diamandis isn't alone in his sentiments. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are among the big names bullish about humanoid robots.
I don’t think we will have to worry about robots because the sociopathic narcissist bosses need real people to lord over to give them a sense of worth. If they were not able to manipulate and control real people they wouldn’t be able to be satisfied with only the profits to show for it. They need to see real human suffering in order to minimize their ennui.