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Not surprised. What I saw that I haven't seen mentioned in the handful of news articles I've seen about this is that pretty consistently Biden was winning the Dem primaries with 80-90% of the vote with the remainder scattered among a few other options, maybe protest votes of a kind, while Haley was taking 30+% of the Republican votes. I don't honestly know how this compares to previous primaries. Could this be an indicator of some red reluctance for Trump? Will there be a similar follow through in the presidential election to tear Republican votes away from him?
Here in deep red farm country I can share my own personal observation.
30% seems about right. You’ve got your hardcore Trumpers that would back him if he were caught on video raping a 12 year old. They’d search, “Trump rape video real?” and comb through 400 or so top results all saying he did it, it’s irrefutable, and then they’d find a site that links to something like truepatriotredwhiteandbluebaldeaglefreedomforever1776foundingfathersconstitution.com and they’d take whatever it says as the holy and sacred truth. You know, because the deep state and all that.
Then you’ve got those people (like my uncle) who happen to be very religious and feel totally threatened by the satanic trans cult of gayness and black power. They don’t want Trump, they’re scared of his foreign policy, but they believe most of what he says is being said just to upset people. They’d rather get Haley, but it isn’t gonna happen. They’re going to vote for Trump because Jesus don’t like gay people and shit like that.
I would say (anecdotally in a place that voted more than 80% for Trump last time around) that around 5% of those people will sit the election out. The other 25% (probably less here honestly) who want a sane candidate still don’t want a democrat. If it means sacrificing our country to fascism, so be it. Most of them don’t believe that will happen though. They’ve been fed alternative facts and they’re convinced Jan 6 was ain tee fuh and the election was stolen.
Gods help us. Jesus, Buddha, Allah, Krishna, and anybody else that wanna look out for us.
It's hard to compare, because Biden is an incumbent. Trump is only kinda sorta an incumbent.