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I'd clarify with them but probably the 4th. As a kid I was raised that "this X" is the next one and "next X" is the one after that. But as an adult I can't say I've ever talked to someone who actually used it that way. Instead "this X" and "next X" mean the same thing (the next one after today)
I find that people generally use "this" and "next" correctly but it depends how the week is being perceived. I think it might depend what day of the week it currently is. Like if it's Sunday, someone might say "next Saturday" to mean the first coming Saturday. But if someone says "next Saturday" on a Thursday they definitely mean the second coming Saturday.
I don't know an adult in my life that doesn't use it the way you and many others here are describing.
Wonder if this is a regional thing.