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The second they rule in Trump's favor, Biden basically has free reign to do whatever the fuck he wants.
Well, that's the thing, they won't rule in Trump's favor. The lower court thoroughly destroyed Trump's case, to the point where the SCOTUS shouldn't taken the case in the first place and let the lower court decision stand. There's no legal support at all for Trump's claims. This all makes it pretty clear the conservative majority on the court merely wanted to toss Trump a bone with a delay and increase his chances of getting back in office.
And what forces SCOTUS to judge based on “legal support”
Nothing, other than wanting to have an historically favorable legacy. But ignoring that, despite Alito and Thomas being unabashed GOP operatives, ruling in favor of immunity would be a stretch for even them. Undoubtedly all the justices realize that if they affirm presidential immunity for life, a president can Seal Team Six one or all of the justices, on a whim. A ruling to affirm immunity would neutralize the power of the court, something an even unethical and selfish justice would want to prevent.
But is it safe to assume they’re smart enough to realize that?
My gut says yes, they’re smart, some of them just have questionable ethics.
Absolutely. One thing I've learned over the years is that intelligence and ethics are two totally separate qualities. I've listened to SCOTUS televised proceedings a few times and the level of mastery of the law and history, and the lines of thinking and arguments are quite stunning. I say this equally of both the conservative and liberal members of the court. But that's not to say they don't steer the arguments and decisions in a way that aligns with their ideology and/or their political allies.