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The Republican party is desperately trying to stay alive by moving away from the crazy but it is still too strong.
Can't win a primary without him, can't win a general with him.
He wins the primary and has a stroke before the general. Everyone gets what they want.
You'd think so but he is leading in the polls and the bettting markets.
I think turnout amongst young voters will be lower than last time for Biden since they have been brainwashed by TikTok on the Gaza issue. Even though the lesser of two evils is clearly Biden especially on Israel and Gaza.
So unless a couple of key states kick him off the ballot Trump will win the electoral college vote. While losing the popular vote by the widest margin to date.
First off, ignore the betting markets. They had Trump winning in 2020, too. The kind of people who put money on this stuff aren't the clear-headed, rational sort.
Second, the polls are broken right now. They've been consistently under-counting Democratic votes for years, due to the difficulty of conducting scientifically sound polls in the age of cellphones and the death of land-lines. Seriously, look at polling for the special elections and midterms since 2018 - it's practically homogenous. In election after election, Democrats overperformed the polls.
I'm not saying we don't have to fight like hell - we absolutely do. But we don't have to lose hope, especially with almost a year to go before the first general election ballots are cast.
Vote like it's a possibility Trump will win, and vote like it's a certainty that you can stop him.
Very well said.
I knew too many idiots who didn't even bother voting in 2016, many of these idiots went to "HILLARY WON!" parties.... that all ended... rather awkwardly with Trump's victoly
Broken is a stretch but we do know which way they leaned and that's not a good sign considering Biden's numbers were overstated.
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/
It's not hopeless but the margins are thin, Trump won by 77,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 81,000 in 2020. Biden doesn't have a lot of slack to play with and he's going to be hit hard from all sides including his own thanks to 10/7.
Between inflation, "the border", Ukraine funding, Israel and every country with a vested interest against America influencing people online more than ever before it's gearing up to be a disaster.
I didn't cite Biden's election, I specifically cited midterms and special elections. We know Trump supporting voter turnout was higher than expected in 2020. So was Biden turnout, though not by as much.
But now we're three years in, inflation is down, the economy is robust, and there's not nearly as much reason to be full of doom and gloom as an addiction to pundits would have you believe.
Breathe. Hope is not lost.
All of this could be avoided with a single drone strike which, according to Trump, would be perfectly legal for Biden to order. I hate this timeline.
The crazy is why it's still alive. Nobody was excited about seeing the same old shit in 2016, which it seemed like it'd be with Clinton vs Bush. Trump was pushed to the top of the republican party by voters enthused by this new energy, even if his policies have basically been republican standard with possibly a few kinks.
Now with Haley, people are talking about a return to normalcy but I caution against this because that'll mean more acceptance of a republican candidate who will follow the same policies as Trump for the most part except "with more decorum" i.e. the usual republican bullshit. Democrats have put too much emphasis on "not Trump" and "return to normalcy" and "decorum" that Haley then gets seen as acceptable and the so-called moderates that democrats want to woo so badly would be fine with voting for her, same with never-Trump voters.
Trump getting out of the presidential race in some way and being replaced by Haley could actually be one way democrats lose this election. On top of that, republicans will claim first woman president after democrats emphasized over and over again how important diversity is (but still going with Biden lol).
"Can't win a primary without him, can't win a general with him."
Found Beau's Lemmy account! :P