this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2024
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Incredible how you can state basic obvious truth and get mass downvotes. The fact that so many people still can't comprehend that Ukraine can't win this war shows the sheer power of western propaganda.
North Vietnam couldn't beat America. Afghanistan couldn't beat the Soviet Union and then beat America. And, of course, Ukraine couldn't resist a Russian invasion for years.
If Russia can lose, then Ukraine can win, and Russia can definitely lose. By some measures, they have already lost. If this war was to "stop NATO expansion" then they lost when their aggression caused Finland to join. If their objective was to reenforce their image of dominance in the region, that has failed spectacularly.
It's funny that you would bring up Vietnam because there is a parallel there, just not the one you think. The regime in western Ukraine that US backing bears a lot of resemblance to the regime US was backing in south Vietnam, and it's now collapsing in exactly the same way.
What you don't seem to understand is that there was already a civil war between western and eastern Ukraine since the coup in 2014. Let's take a look at a few slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 to get a bit of background on the subject. Mearsheimer is certainly not pro Russian in any sense, and a proponent of US global hegemony. First, here's the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here's how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
Ukraine is not some homogeneous blob, but a country that's divided precisely along the current combat lines.
Ukraine split amicably with Russia and the borders were agreed upon after the fall of Soviet Union. The same source that you linked for your last picture would have also shown survey that Russian-speaking Ukrainians also do not wish their country to be split despite the disagreements.
But Putin exacerbated the division for his own end (same as how he stoked tensions in Georgia). That's like Republic of Ireland stoking tensions in Northern Ireland to get back the north. Or, Turkey doing the same to take over the entirety of Cyprus after already taking over the northern part of the island. All of those would violate international sovereignty of a nation under the UN Charter, which Russia have practically done in the case of Ukraine.
Russian MO is so easy to call out. They copy the playbook from another fascist claiming ethnic Germans abroad were being oppressed to justify invasion. Even though there was no evidence.
It's pretty funny how when Donbas wants to separate from nazis, it's Putin, Putin, Putin. But when US backed DPP wants separatism in Taiwan, it's just wholesome freedom and democracy. Apparently, people in Donbas don't get any agency of their own, and nobody can imagine why they wouldn't want to live under a western backed regime that's trying to erase their identity.
As if the referendum in Eastern Ukraine wasn't totally done at gunpoint and there was no clear video evidence of counting ballots as yes, despite the ballot being blank.
Funny there is no desire by Russian-speaking Baltics to try to join Russia. It is though Kremlin knows exactly not to agitate NATO members. Putin meanwhile harangued Georgia and Ukraine because they're not NATO members.
Edit: Also, the UN themselves stated they found no evidence of genocide or discrimination on Russian-speakers in Ukraine in 2015.
I love how you just keep lying about things that are publicly documented
There's even a whole hour long French documentary about what Ukraine's been up to in Donbas after the coup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN68OfFKaWs
Incredible how you claim people who were being ethnically cleansed were joining Russia at gunpoint. 🤡
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=bN68OfFKaWs
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
No country would want a part of them to secede. Majority of Eastern Ukrainians are still loyal to Ukraine-- the issue had been more about where to align until Putin exacerbated the tensions rather than easing them, especially after invading Crimea. Of course, no country would want a part of them to secede. Ukraine did not approve of this and things only escalated. The conflict in Eastern Ukraine was a civil, domestic matter but Kremlin made it an international one.
The UN did say there is no ethnic cleansing but Kremlin obviously worked behind the scenes to stoke tensions. The usual boogeyman of Azov battalion and Ukrainian far right only appeared in large groups in May 2015, long after 2014 Maidan revolution and after the Russian annexation of Crimea in early 2015.
Your own state Russian TV station videoed counting blank ballots as yes in the supposed referendum. Maybe you should get glasses old fart 🤡
Again, this is like Republic of Ireland invading the politically British territory of Northern Ireland and then invading England. Or Turkey invading the whole of Cyprus after already annexing the north. It's illegal and you know.
You know who else invaded other countries under trumped up justification to protect German minorities abroad? Why won't Russia invade Baltics then to protect Russian speakers? Russian nationalists are a strange lot.
🤣
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
this lecture
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
You didn't just move the goalposts, you obliterated them. Ukraine can win. I'm not interested in your goofy ass obfuscations about Ukrainian society.
Ukraine very obviously can't win, but if you still haven't figured that out yet then there's little point talking with you.
Yeah, good idea. Go convince someone who already agrees with you.
I don't need to convince you of anything, reality will be impossible to ignore even for the most propagandized segments of the public soon enough.
If only everyone saw the world as clearly as you. /s
Just curious. Do you have a gun to your head, or do you choose to do it?
I love how people like you keep acting smug after being wrong about literally everything for the past two years. Really highlights your intellectual prowess.
Wow, you've followed everything I posted for two whole years, even through a platform change. I'm kinda flattered.
Thanks for providing another example of your vast intellect in action.
How's the oil export business going? Winning sure looks a lot like burning to me.
Oil is only a small percentage of the Russian economy, so it's pretty funny how people who guzzle propaganda still think Russia is a gas station with nukes.
The rest is just as vulnerable.
Vulnerable to what exactly, Russia has already pivoted its economy away from the west and towards Asia. If Russia was vulnerable at any time that was during the period of transition during the first year. What we're seeing now is that Europe needed Russia in order for its economy to function, but Russia doesn't need Europe. If you still can't wrap your head around this, then keep on coping while you still can.
Vulnerable to Russia's inability to protect it's airspace or protect it's infrastructure from internal adversaries. It's not a problem that Putin can just throw more meat at. It requires the kind of functional technical solutions that Russia has failed at beyond even the expectations of even someone as blinded by western propaganda as me.
Aww, you keep on coping there little buddy.
I'll sit here "coping" while you put out oil fires. I can live with that arrangement.
Your shithole country doesn't even need to be at war to have massive disasters because your infrastructure is collapsing 😂 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/04/ohio-train-derailment-east-palestine-health-chemical-symptom
Russia doesn't have derailments? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_rail_accidents
oh boy, now let's compare that with the burger empire 🤡 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_railroad_accidents
Well, we do have about twice as much rail for twice as many people.
In any case, this is hardly relevant to the fact that Russia faces increasing resistance from inside it's own borders, and it has no ability to realistically resist. That's going to impact Russia's staying power. Ross in the number of oligarchs falling out of windows, and it kinda looks like Putin is feeling the pressure.
I'll take that as a win.
whatever helps you feel good about yourself muffin