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It's not about whether Biden would win or lose a debate. It's the fact that winning or losing won't make any difference, because the MAGA crowd will only see the heavily edited and clipped version that is shown on Fox.
There's also the worry that agreeing to a debate could be considered a tacit acceptance of Trump's elligibility. If Biden agrees to debate with Trump, he's also agreeing that Trump can run for president and deserves to be on the debate floor.
This is a good point... By Biden declining the debate after accepting it for years ago he's sending a message. That message is that Trump is absolutely not qualified to run for this office.