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So, how do you think the Court will justify keeping Trump on the ballot?
I think the most sound legal reasoning would be to say he hasn't actually been convicted of any charge that constitutes "insurrection". Conviction is how the government asserts and proves that something happened, and to skip this step opens our legal system for a whole lot of abuse. They're going to say that, if and when he is convicted, then he can be barred, but not before.
The people the this amendment was specifically targeting weren't convicted of anything.
If I'm not mistaken they were even blanket pardoned
This is true but if there's any possibility that SCOTUS rules in trump's favor that will be the only semi logical way they could do it.