this post was submitted on 25 Dec 2023
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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

As far as I’m given to understand from folks who are Russian (but got out of Russia) or Ukrainian, this fellow would more be a change from one strongman to another if he replaced Putin

This is the exact thought the majority of anti-Putin crowd had about his political ambitions during his attempt to get elected as Moscow's mayor in 2013.

Apparently his Livejournal has him saying some nasty stuff he hasn’t repudiated

He did eventually release a controversial statement rebuking his past racist/nationalist remarks. He said he was only hanging around nationalist circles only because it was the only group capable of carrying out a revolution at the time (like Pravy Sektor eventually did in Ukraine). Then he got into some drama with prominent nationalist leaders, and those nationalist leaders got in trouble with the law, so he changed the course to the point that I'd say liverjournal Navalny and youtube Navalny are completely different personalities, as he went much milder there. Though he never did take back his homophobic remarks.

It’s been strangely fascinating watching as western media tries to hold him up as some hope

That's because he has by far the most followers. The ones within official parties are all corrupt puppets, and the closest not officially registered opponent has spent last few months literally begging the remnants of the Navalny's team, who did nothing but shit their pants for the last year, to join forces on the next election.

there’s basically minimal hope he’ll be anything close to a (good) Western-style leader and if he gets into power

His main point of his campaign boils down to make things work "right", by the book, the way they were designed. Primarily, by eliminating corruption, ensuring fair voting and revamping inefficient post-soviet mechanisms in government. I don't remember him having any particular stances on social issues like religion or abortion etc. It was more about making the government actually democratic and functional, then letting the others push their agendas.

So I suspect if Putin is ever ousted, whoever replaces him (whether this guy or another) will be there because people think he can bring stability, not because the successor will actually be a good leader (from a western perspective).

Exactly the thought of most Putin's supporters, who were there during the 90's, or been scared by the images of those by the propaganda machine. But honestly, as someone who grew in the 90's, I'll take that over what we got now. Back then people had opportunity, be it a businessman or a criminal mastermind, which kind of sucked if you chose first and encountered the latter, but at least it was possible. Nowadays, there's not any. There's only small business and then there's business effectively controlled by the government, with nothing in between.

Anyway. I find it interesting this guy hasn’t yet been executed. Instead they (supposedly) shuffle him off elsewhere. If you were Putin, why not kill him?

He's literal Nelson Mandela right now. Killing him would make a lot of people boil with rage and might cause a massive unrest.

If Navalny ever comes to power, I don’t have any particular hope he’ll be a “good” leader

Oh he'd be good. Just not necesarilly aligned with western politics. Like, he would've not gone to war with Ukraine because it wouldn't make sense, but, if for some reason he did, his revamped government might've actually beat Ukraine in a week like Putin hoped, as Ukraine still hindered by the same post-soviet problems that Russia has, along with, well, war. And that's the dangerous part given his past nationalist past. Like, he could've went to war Georgia instead as he had particular grudge against them in the past.