this post was submitted on 03 Dec 2023
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Well not really, right? BG and GB are the same scenario here, so it’s a 50/50 chance.
Even if, say, the eldest child always opened the door, it’d still be a 50/50 chance, as the eldest child being a boy eliminates the possibility of GB, leaving either BG or BB.
Ironically you've got the right answer, but (as you can see in some of the other conversation here) not necessarily for the right reason. It's not necessarily that BG and GB are the same, but that BB and BB are two different scenarios worthy of being counted separately.
Why is it that BB and BB are being counted separately? I thought that order didn’t matter: you could have two girls, a boy and a girl (or vice versa, same thing), or a two boys. (And then by eliminating two girls you’d have a 50/50 chance).
Because describing it as I did in that comment is a (very) shorthand way of getting at how it was explained in full by @[email protected] in this comment.
Just read it: makes sense now. Thanks!