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If Trump is still the nominee, he will likely have been convicted in at least one of those 4 criminal cases, but still holds sway in the party to win anyway and will double-dog-dare Georgia to throw him in jail. In that case, I don't think enough people would willingly vote for a felon (even a Republican one) to give him a chance.
This leaves Biden a single thing he absolutely needs to win the election: a pulse. I think the only person keeping America from becoming a fascist dictatorship is not Biden, it's his cardiologist. That doctor needs to keep Biden's heart ticking until Jan 21 2025.
It does lay the groundwork for a civil war. You know some redneck dumb fucks are going to try to break him out of jail, and then it's on. It's clear that Trump's base is voting Trump no matter what.
His base sure, but his base aren't all of the people who've voted for him, and being a convicted felon is going to tank his numbers outside that base
The other people that voted for him are still going to vote for him because R.
Pretending otherwise is why Biden is behind in the polls.
I'm equally happy with a Saddam style lookalike or if he kicks the bucket in the last few days, even a Weekend at Bernie's solution.
The worst possible timeline is if Biden wins the election, but croaks before the election can be certified by Congress. There will be legitimate challenges over whether any Biden/Harris electors can be accepted at all, and the election may go to the House/Senate to decide. And even if the Democrats control Congress , if the House has to vote on who should be President each state's delegation gets 1 vote, and that math favors Republicans.
In that scenario, a Trump/Harris administration is extremely likely, even if the Biden/Harris ticket won enough EC votes to win.