this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Ukraine did not even want to join NATO, they just want to join the EU. However, Russia, because they want to carve their own sphere of influence, think Ukraine joining the EU is tantamount to joining NATO.
Also, Russia invaded the entirety of Ukraine, why would Ukraine say they don't want to join NATO anymore after Russia occupied nearly half the country? And Putin's claim of stopping NATO expansion is obviously a load of crap when two nations just joined NATO! How would that exactly stop the alliance from expanding after invading another country? Even if Ukraine gave promise not to join NATO in spring 2022 (which, by the way, sounds implying demanding surrender from Ukraine), Finland and Sweden still would have joined after what Russia had just done.
Even so, the previous NATO summit did not even provide guarantee to Ukraine that they will be allowed to join! The narrative of Ukraine joining NATO from Russian perspective was not a forgone conclusion until Putin decided to annex Crimea, support the separatists and invade the rest of Ukraine. The very thing he feared from happening just happened because of his own hubris. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy of his own making!
There are many draft dodgers from Ukraine, not surprising there. Any wars have them, not that I would blame them personally. Nevertheless, most Ukrainian men and women of fighting age are still willing to fight.
The idea of Russia as a single irrational actor surrounded by rational actors just isn't accurate, it purports that there are no rational reasons for their actions and thus explains nothing. So you're left thinking what you've typed there, just no ability to explain the actions of Russia other than being dumbfounded by it in this cartoonish way. Ukraine is easy to rationalize because they're defending themselves as they have the right to, as well as entertain and control their own alliances as a sovereign nation does.
The rich soils and gas reserves of Ukraine are exploitable resources, and Russia is an imperialist actor competing for these resources with the EU and NATO, and Ukraine. The capitalist class in Russia want access to these resources and pressures the government to act in their interest, the government must support the economic arrangement that sustains their legitimacy and power. All the stuff you've said about how Putin is dumb may be completely true but ignores these structural causes of this conflict and assumes it's one man's irrational decisions that have caused all this. Seeing the structural causes here provides rational explanations for why not just this conflict, but why these types of conflicts occur. Competition between capitalists for who gets to exploit limited resources, yes it's that simple.
Nobody should be compelled to violence by a greater power than their own. Radical non-violence is a different mindset than that which sustains state powers and it takes a strong belief that another world is possible to follow it. People say it's not realistic while dying in the service of fairy tales, at least my fairy tale offers an alternative.
Yes, if the person subscribes to realpolitik/realist theory then what you say is correct. Which is why I said Russia wants to carve their own sphere of influence. As you mentioned, Ukraine is resource-rich. But even so, Russia is a huge country and they already have loads of resources under the sun. Having Ukraine's resources just adds to their collection.
But the most rational reason for Russian imperialism from the realist perspective is that Ukraine being in the West's influence would make Russia feel insecure and vulnerable. Ukraine's flatlands lead straight to the vital Russian oil supply in Caucasus-- the Volgograd gap as they call it. Even before the German invasion of the Soviet Union in World War II, many German planners proposed ro concentrate their forces in Ukraine to strike USSR. The Soviets have (incorrectly) anticipated this and put most of their armoured forces in Ukraine. But as history unfolded, the Germans focused straight to Moscow not Ukraine. Although the German forces in Ukraine in 1941 suffered heavy casualties because they faced the best Soviet forces there.
Let's face it though, the term "realism" and "realpolitik" is a misnomer and counter to "reality" and "rationality". The reality is that there is no reason as to why people across the world should not get along and try to usurp one another. There is no rational reason for it other than our un-evolved lizard brains trying to be competitive with one another.