11/17/2023 Estimated DRS count: 76,070,216 ((using today's DRSbot total + fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets) x 4.175)
The 4.175 multiplier comes from 8/31/2023 Form 10-Q divided by DRSbot 8/31/2023 total: 75,400,000 / 18,059,540 = 4.175
Bloomberg data (to 9/11/2023), DRS estimated counts, and other:
| Holding | Number of shares | As of |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs | 29,138,064 | 9/8/2023 |
| MFs, Index Funds, Pension Funds, etc | 33,999,059 | 9/8/2023 |
| Other Institutional Ownership | 32,373,815 | 9/8/2023 |
| Insiders Stagnant | 14,339,510 | 9/8/2023 |
| Insiders | 38,540,578 | 9/11/2023 |
| DRS'd - 200k Computershare accounts | 76,070,216 | 11/17/2023 |
| Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA | 19,017,554 | 11/17/2023 |
| Other | 61,762,498 | 11/17/2023 |
- Total Outstanding on 8/31/2023 and 10/12/2023: 305,241,294
- Thank you to lawsondt for the Bloomberg data to 9/8/2023.
- "Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA" is a conservative percentage. The Google share count surveys have suggested the 200k Computershare accounts have 30-40% additional shares stuck in IRAs.
- "Fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets" is primarily whale #1's 1,388,490 DRS shares. Long story of switching subs and losing their DRS share count. So added the "fix inadvertent" column to capture their DRS shares.
Discussion points:
- It seems "odd" on some of the DRS count fluctuations since the beginning.
- It seems "odd" on recent DRS count stagnating (excluding the Mainstar rugpull of 1.27 million shares). From a very simplistic view assuming 200,000 Computershare accounts:
| Buy X number of shares a month | Multiply by 3 months per quarter | Total DRS per quarter if 100,000 active accounts | Total DRS per quarter if 200,000 active accounts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 300,000 | 600,000 |
| 2 | 6 | 600,000 | 1,200,000 |
| 3 | 9 | 900,000 | 1,800,000 |
| 4 | 12 | 1,200,000 | 2,400,000 |
| 5 | 15 | 1,500,000 | 3,000,000 |
- The April 2023 List of stockholders DRS numbers seem correct and line up with SEC filings.
- Possible some investors have had to un-DRS.
- Possible economic slowdown has reduced investor purchasing power.
- Whale investors who helped inflate DRS numbers alot, have dramatically slowed down their purchasing.
- Tinfoil - possible there have been forces inflating and draining their DRS shares, spread across say 3,000 accounts to make it seem like normal activity.
- Tinfoil - possible something funny with SEC filing reported number.
What's the calculation for 100% completion at this rate ? Million a year ?
That's where the SEC filing oddities kick in. Is it strange that 200,000 Computershare accounts are only progressing at:
But simple math of when just ONE share a month for 200,000 accounts would be +600,000 a quarter?
It's possible many of us are overestimating the 200,000 accounts' purchasing power. Or something funny is going on.
This next Form 10-Q data point should be interesting!
I'd say there's been a pretty remarkable down turn. Less posts on Reddit. Less engagement. It's been going on for years and most will have some level of fatigue. You've got COVID, high inflation and just general life admin coming into play
Anecdotally I've completed stopped buying gme for last 6 months. Can't buy when trying to get a home loan approval. I'll probably start again in the new year.
Plenty will have accumulated what they think is enough and others will probably just tire.
Interesting that new comers don't keep up the push though.