this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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Most likely scenario is that everyone in a blacklisted country is buying them up as quickly as they can get them before the new export ban goes into place. Once that happens and essentially 25% of the buyers market goes away, I would be surprised if prices didn't go back down.
I keep seeing people saying this and while it would make sense at first glance do remember that Nvidia is very much aware that a big chunk of their market will be gone soon, and they've known for a while (way before us randos learned about it). If Nvidia appropriately managed their production in anticipation of this they can keep prices higher for a while. Not forever, but at least until early next year. You can also be sure they won't let the prices do down even a dollar below MSRP until the Super series is out. Can't have a "cheap" 4090 make their 4080 Super look worse.
That very well could be the case. Nvidia is well known to manipulate supply to artificially keep prices high. Look at how hard they fought to try and keep Covid pricing. It could happen, but I think it's more likely that it'll go down than not since there was a buying frenzy for blacklisted countries.
And where do you think the cards will get built ? I’m not really aware of almost any large scale place that makes video cards outside of China currently.
Unless something gets spun up quick I foresee some shortages, and possibly quality issues while the new factories figure shit out.
Taiwan probably.
Taiwan doesn't really have much large scale general electronics manufacturing on the scale of China. And a lot companies that used to manufacture there use China now.
Nvidia has exactly one Chinese supplier that has no other base of operations. They are replacing that. IIRC this is not a big issue. You can google for more details.