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I did the math a few years ago because I couldn't find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn't. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here's the thing. It's cumulative. And it just doesn't stop. It is relentless. it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
I have a feeling you "aged in to conservatism" because that's when you finally had money and humans are generally shit when it comes to "fuck you I got mine" but speaking as a millennial, that's just not happening. My generation's retirement plan is to die at our desks hopefully in a way that creates a lot of work for our bosses. Although on the less cynical side of things, I also tend to think that generally people are becoming more tolerant over time.
For the most part I have aged into liberalism. Older I get and the more shit I have seen.
Before: What do you mean institutional racism is a thing? I am not racist, no one I know is racist. Oh sure there are skinheads, but they are in jail. Since I don't see it, it must not be there.
Now: I just saw my friend who is black get treated like he was a dangerous criminal because of the crime of walking.
Stuff like that for example. I am doing well, I got mine. I want everyone else to get there's as well.
I completely agree. With both points. Add to it the rapidly fading religious influence.
I remember Gen X saying much the same thing about their retirement plans, too, though.
Regarding the steadfast belief that "conservatism is dying": no it isn't. Christian schools, home schools, Christian colleges, and even regular schools, communities and colleges are pumping out kids that have the beliefs of their parents. I live in a rural area, and work (hypocritically) for a Christian based organization. I'm surrounded by young minds that are perfectly comfortable with the ideals of the religious right, and vote.
Society has been saying it for years... We said it when I was back in college. "Bubba in the white house is going to be the best! We'll undo all the hell Reagan and Bush did!" then Newt Gingrich (sounds like a disease...) made his "Promise to America(tm)" and everything got fucked.
I will say that the trend, year over year, for xtians has been they have been going down at roughly 1% per year, every year, for many years now. I think it is things like this that explain why the cons are getting increasingly radicalized in their positions and in their tactics. They have been denigrating the notion of democratic norms (the well-actually "this is not a democratic country" stuff that they love to pull, for instance). Their more wonky members starting laying the groundwork way, way back, according to McLean's Democracy In Chains.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america/
I mean, the fact that about 1 in 3 is unaffiliated is quite staggering. I can remember a time where even admitting this was seen as rather "edgy", now it's going to earn a shrug.
This is why they want religious schools, school vouchers, private schools, etc. It's segregation light. This way they stay in their echo chamber.
But the data shows religiousness is going down. The ones that remain are becoming more radical.
This is also why they want Fox, to appeal to more than the religious.
People have been saying that conservatism is aging out since at least the 90's. Instead we see resurgences throughout the years.
Some people have been saying that the current resurgence is more of a death throe. I truly hope so, but I'm worried.
It used to be that being conservative did not require you being batshit insane.
Yes batshit insane conservatives existed, but so did reasonable people supporting reasonable sounding policies by conservative politicians who behaved in a respectable manner.
While I believe it's still possible for reasonable people to be Conservative, it's not possible for reasonable people to support Republicans with their mouth pieces like Magorie "Jewish Space Lasers" Green being treated like someone with opinions worth listening to.
Damn dude, I needed to read this today. That’s amazing!