this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
140 points (89.8% liked)

Science Memes

11189 readers
1665 users here now

Welcome to c/science_memes @ Mander.xyz!

A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.

Rules

  1. Don't throw mud. Behave like an intellectual and remember the human.
  2. Keep it rooted (on topic).
  3. No spam.
  4. Infographics welcome, get schooled.

This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.

Research Committee

Other Mander Communities

Science and Research

Biology and Life Sciences

Physical Sciences

Humanities and Social Sciences

Practical and Applied Sciences

Memes

Miscellaneous

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
140
Sleeping Beauty Trolley Problem (mander.xyz)
submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
42 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

OC just for you! ♥️

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] aurele 12 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Except that if people are chosen randomly there is 2/3 chance that you are on the main track according to Bayes. Let's assume there are 10 people.

The probability to be chosen is 1/6 (all are chosen if 6 is rolled) + (5/6) × (1/10) (only one is chosen to go to the side track if 1-5 is rolled) = 15/60 = 1/4.

The probability that you are on the side track knowing that you have been chosen is the probability that you have been chosen knowing that the side track is selected (1/10) × the probability that the side track is selected (5/6) divided by the probability for you to be selected at all (1/4), so (1/10)×(5/6)/(1/4) = 20/60 = 1/3. So there is a 2/3 chance that you are on the main track.

If you do not flip the switch, (2/3)×10 = 20/3 people die.

If you flip the switch, 1/3 (you if on side track) + 10 × 2/3 × 9 / 10 (switch misfires 9 out of 10 times if on the main track) = 190/30 = 19/3 die. This is slightly better than not flipping the switch, you save 1/3 people more. That's an arm and a leg.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I wouldn't assume anything about the number of people and how anyone was chosen. All I know is I'm on the track.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

But if you say you are on each track with p=1/2 then you also assume (different) details about how you were chosen

The task is unclear here, you have to make an assumption. I don't know which is intended.