this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
25 points (90.3% liked)
MTG
1859 readers
6 users here now
Magic: the Gathering discussion
General discussion, questions, and media related to Magic: the Gathering that doesn't fit within a more specific community. Our equivalent of /r/magicTCG!
Type [[Card name]] in your posts and comments and CardBot will reply with a link to the card! More info here.
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Regarding the specific chances, considering they detailed the odds for the List spot but not the wildcards, I think it's more reasonable to assume chances are equal to the percentage of rares in a given set, which can vary dramatically, but I believe it's usually about 33%.
As for the math, I definitely went about it wrong (I was using 1-p^n^ for some reason, and I also did that wrong somehow). The right result would be closer to 16 rares per pod.
Why would they not adjust for rarity in this slot? They do it in all the other slots - it seems like a big leap to think that any specific common that can appear in this slot is equally as likely as any specific mythic.
Sorry for the double post, but I thought you might be interested to see this.
MaRo has posted the odds. So looks like 8.88 packs per draft will have 2 rares, 0.96 packs per draft will have 3 rares, and <0.24 packs per draft will have 4 rares, for resulting in roughly (8.88 + 0.96*2 + 0.24*3 =) 11.52 extra rares per draft.
All good! Thanks for sharing. Ultimately still too much variation, imo.