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Yep, you hit the nail on the head. 99% of people don't believe conspiracy theories because they're dumb or mistakenly came to the wrong conclusion. They believe because it allows them to create a reality where they are a part of a chosen few who have seen the light.
I'm not so sure about that personally. People who believe in some conspiracy gets treated like idiots, so there is no payoff for them.
If they would be treated by the public like they were on to something, then maybe you could be right. But today, there is zero incentive to talk publicly about conspiracy theories. :)
Oh, but there are lots of other mechanisms. Conspiratorial Thinking (CT for short) is a complicated subject, and people who are into CT tend to have a bunch of things in common. For example, many of them suffer from anxiety, uncertainty, loneliness and many other things. Some will even show signs of sub-clinical narcissism, psychosis and paranoia.
All of that means that they tend to find CT very appealing, but it won’t really alleviate their symptoms or address any root causes. Well, some people find a sense of community in conspiracy circles, so that would help with loneliness. The sense of uncertainty can be alleviated by offering simplified (but incorrect) explanations as to how the world works. People having CT will also have a sense of being in an exclusive group since they are in possession of hidden truths. Nevertheless, CT still drives these people deeper into CT and further away from the rest of the society. This causes further alienation and anxiety.
That's the thing - to be valued by "the public" (mainstream society), one generally has to know something or be able to do something. If someone can't do that (because they didn't have the chance to learn or develop skills, or because their skills become irrelevant), the simplest way to feel valued is to change your point of reference. These people are treated like idiots by most of society, but within their group they're the smartest people there are. And all those sheeple that make fun of them? well, they're the real idiots, and when the whatever happens, they will see just how wrong they were. All one has to do so he can be considered smart and valued by this group is to accept some BS about the earth being flat or whatever. for someone who isn't valued by society anyway that's about the lowest entry price possible.
I guess it could be like that for some people, but how it worked for me when I was into all that, I just wanted to know what actually happened. I didn't talk to anyone about it because I'm not stupid. :)