this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

The 'RV' annotation means it's a poll of people who say they are registered voters.

Proof is a standard for mathematics. Not the real world. It's likely enough that Republicans regularly provide financial support for the Greens. That's good enough for me

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

so you have conjecture. you should have just said that instead of stating it as indisputable fact and then trying to snow me with data that doesn't prove your position.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I have:

  • a history of people actually voting for the Greens
  • polls where registered voters say they'll do so instead of voting for Democrats
  • a party ideology which could attract Democrats but which would be antithetical to Republicans
  • a history of Republicans funding Green party candidates as spoilers
  • an Election system which causes them to in fact serve as spoilers

It's pretty compelling when taken as a whole

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

i'm of the opinion that democrats spoil green party elections, and if the democrats weren't on the ballot, greens would have won every election for the last 30 years. and i have just as much proof as you do.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

The Green candidates are all complete dorks. We have studies on what voters like in a candidate and they have none of those qualities.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago

The Green candidates are all complete dorks.

this is a nonsequitur

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

We have studies on what voters like in a candidate and they have none of those qualities.

you aren't providing any of those studies. further, as i said, a hypothesis framed like this cannot actually be proven (or disproven), so i don't know what good those studies would do.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I'm not gonna waste my time on your bullshit the way Silence will.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago

"bullshit" would be making a clear claim, then presenting anything except evidence when challenged on it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago

this is not a refutation of anything I've said

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

registered voters are not the same as likely voters, nor actual past voters. you made a claim that you simply can't prove and none of the data you've provided is, in fact, proof for your claim.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Likely voter models don't work well enough to look at 1-3% kinds of numbers of voters more than a year out from election day. Sorry.

Using actual voters from 2020 is tough because we had two different third parties there: the Greens who siphoned votes off of Biden, and the Libertarians who siphoned a larger number of votes off of Trump. So you see polls showing the combined effect (slightly beneficial to Biden) but not the separate impact of the Green party candidate.

Absolute proof isn't something that really exists in the social sciences, which is why you're never going to find it, the most you find is several decent converging lines of evidence, as we have here.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 year ago

Absolute proof isn’t something that really exists in the social sciences

this platitude isn't even true. lots of things can be proven false in social sciences. the fact that you are (quixotically) defending an unprovable hypothesis doesn't mean there aren't disprovable hypotheses which are possible.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Likely voter models don’t work well enough to look at 1-3% kinds of numbers of voters more than a year out from election day. Sorry.

your claim was about past elections. the data you provided was about a potential future election. you still don't seem to be able to understand what was wrong with your claim.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's pretty clear that no amount of data is going to actually convince you.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 year ago

it's not the volume: it's teh quality and relevance. you haven't given me any relevant data to support your claim.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 year ago

the Greens who siphoned votes off of Biden and the Libertarians who siphoned a larger number of votes off of Trump.

you can't prove this at all. just because e those people did vote for libertarians or greens does t mean they would have voted for anyone else. in fact, given the option, they did NOT vote for someone else.