this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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A lot of large companies and executives have investments in real estate. If everyone stopped using offices all of a sudden, they would lost a bunch of money because the space wouldn't be in demand anymore.
I think you're attributing far more coordination to these guys than they're actually capable of.
What I've learned from following cryptocurrencies is that people don't need intentional coordination to be affected by the reality-distorting bias of their investments. If someone has bought a narrative about why the thing they invested in has value, when faced with evidence that this narrative may actually be wrong, most of them aren't going to be sophisticated enough to think "Well that's a strong argument, I guess it would be in my interest to pretend that it's false while privately defecting". Instead they are going to want to dismiss it outright, shit-talk everyone disagreeing, and throw more money/time/effort in the hole. Being financially invested in something messes with your emotions like that.
Basically I think that being invested in commercial real estate is likely to make someone actually believe any ideas that imply that commercial real estate has value, even if they are bullshit.
I don't think there's some shadowy Illuminati organisation behind it. They are pretty blatent when they manipulate things.
That said, I do think there are a lot of investors and analysts that have come to the same conclusion and are talking to each other and passing info to their clients.
Well, maybe you know something I don't, but I'd expect most rich guys would be happy to save on office costs for themselves while still collecting rent from other rich guys, if they were personally okay going remote.
Sure, but if everyone who can goes remote, all that rent money dries up. Most also don't directly own buildings to rent, but rather have investments in companies that do. If those other companies go under then they lose money on investments. I don't have any inside knowledge though, this is just the conclusion I've been able to come to. Other than just being control freaks.
It's a shared resource looked at that way. Usually they aren't so good at managing those without being forced to by law. If it was a forest, they'd cut it all down and go broke afterwards.
I think they're just being stupid. Or, at least their middle managers are, like CBC has suggested in a more tactful way. I have a bit of inside knowledge, because I'm close with someone that's been working remote since the early 2000's, and this is what he's said about clients and vendors trying to comprehend the arrangement.
I definitely agree that they do stupid things because of short term gains and narcissism. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're just grumpy bosses mad that it's harder to boss people around.
I also worry though about portraying executives as buffoons. Most of their short term decisions that look stupid make a lot of sense when you look at it through the lense of them just not caring that it makes life worse for other people. It's honestly probably a combination of a bunch of dumb and greedy things.
There doesn't have to be coordination if there's incentives.
It's like how so many people who drive cars act in ways that benefit cars and is counterproductive for those who don't drive. They want plentiful free parking, lots of lanes, and cheap gasoline. They're not particularly coordinated. They're just incentivized because of their position. They benefit from those kinda things, so gravitate towards them (and also don't oppose them).
What's the incentive here, though? They personally lose money paying for office space they don't need.