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The country is going to hand McConnell the Senate. The 2024 map is so bad that Biden could win by 9 points nationally and still end up with a GOP Senate.
Assuming Manchin doesn't do so first by switching parties.
It depends on who he is caucusing with in 2024.
Republicans may not give Manchin the seniority that Democrats give him if he switches caucuses.
Depends on the issue, I suppose. If it's progressive policy, he'll continue to caucus with Republicans. And centrists will continue to support him, it seems.
That isn't what caucusing is.
What I'm talking about is who decides the majority leader and the majority party. Right now, even though Manchin doesn't always vote for Democrat bills, he does vote to make Democrats the majority party in the Senate.
This isn't something you flip easily.
We'll see if he continues to do so.
I don't want to hear any whining from centrists if he does change parties. Progressives told you who he was.
That’s just a 50-50 with VP Harris breaking ties again (it’s really 48+1+1 vs 50 because of Sanders and Sinema, but that’s only a little important).