this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2025
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Leopards Ate My Face
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If it happens fast (because the US defaults on its external debt) rather than slowly (the slow decay from the post "Imperial" era), the damage will be very different because it will be a sudden shock rather than something slow enough that people and companies can adapt to it.
It's the difference between, sudden hyper-inflation within a few months and having a few decades of higher inflation than its trade partners (which is actually what has been happenning so far) or a sudden forced significant cut on just about all kinds of public expenses (because nobody will be lending money to the US and printing money will generate way more inflation when a significant proportion of new dollars aren't going abroad anymore, which links to the whole hyperinflation thing) and decades of fiscal contraction (again, what's been happenning so far).
If you think people are dissatisfied because average salary growth isn't keeping up with 7 or 8% inflation, imagine when it's 30 or 40% inflation.