this post was submitted on 09 Mar 2025
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The actual question asked was "Do you think if you were playing your very best tennis, you could win a point off Serena Williams?"
This leaves huge ambiguity. How many points are we playing? What's the setting? Does it count if she double faults, or only if I win the point by something I do?
If it's a full set, and any point I get regardless of why I get it counts, I think 12% is probably low. Consider the huge advantages most amateurs have of doing very confusing things, and possibly getting some mercy after its clear there's no true competition to be had, I would give quite high odds that she loses at least one point.
If this is more like a sudden death, "I'll bust out my secret serve, and get a point off her in one shot", 12% is stupid high.
I have no idea which of those (or the myriad middle options...) People thought they were answering, but for a male with typical bone density, a 120mph serve wouldn't be enough to drive through your skull, but it will give her a point if it hits you in the face. You have nearly 500 milliseconds to dip out of the way, and let it go sailing over your head for that single fault.