this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2025
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The Gen 10 announcement could actually happen IMO. Gens tend to run on a 3-year life cycle now, gen 9 hit 2 years last fall. Announcement now for a fall release is about right. They'll probably squeeze Z-A in there in the late spring/early summer to have SOME gen 9 game out other than only S/V. I would guess the original plan was to have Z-A out last year but maybe GF/TPC actually took fans' response to the technical issues with S/V into consideration and delayed to this year to work on optimization for the Switch 1. That's at least my optimistic take.
2026 is the 30th anniversary of the Pokémon series. They've always done new generations on the big anniversaries: Diamond/Pearl (gen4) for the 10th in 2006 (in Japan) and Sun/Moon (gen7) for the 20th in 2016. It would likewise be fitting to release the next generation in 2026 rather than this year.
I also believe we would have already seen a Z-A reveal trailer before the end of the 2024 if it was truly slated for a date as early as spring or early summer. Holding off on showing or saying absolutely anything since the teaser last February seemingly implies it's Game Freak's one big title for the year that'll be the main focus this time.