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It is fascinating how little this correlates to the Tesla stock price. It has dropped a bit, down 8.4% in the last month, but it still up 80.8% over the last 6 months. I´m curious what kind of business model the shareholders is expecting from Tesla that does not involve selling cars.
I imagine that the federal government will be buying Teslas by the shipload
The army will be replacing humvees with cybertrucks.
Tesla will announce a CyberTank to replace the M1
i'm only sort of joking
Judging on the fact that it jumped up after election day, investors are expecting corporate nepotism to boost profits.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...or sth like that.
"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine" - Benjamin Graham ("father" of value investing and mentor to Warren Buffett)
Meaning that in the short term, stock prices can be swayed from a company's true value by investors' emotions and opinions.
But eventually the stock price will align with the company's actual profitability and growth potential.
And you're right that these are crazy times, and the "short term" irrationality can last a lot longer than past experiences.
Historically, we've used examples like the 17th century tulip mania, or the dot com boom, but it won't surprise me if Tesla becomes the poster child for this quote in the future.
The share price isn't based on car sales. If it were just about car sales, it would be about 10% of the price it is now.
The share price is mostly ridiculous, but it is also people trying to get in early, on the assumption that they solve FSD, battery storage, Optimus (their robot), and battery manufacturing.
If they solve all of this, then Tesla could 10x again. It's very future dependent, and I think that future is a lot longer away than a lot of other shareholders think.
I got in at ~$20 per share. I've significantly reduced my position over the last few months, but I do still believe in the original mission of Tesla. I just don't think they're going to get there with Elon.
IMHO only FSD is something they could potentially achieve, but it took them so long the competition is catching up. At least in Europe (where Teslas have barely functioning traffic sign recognition) other manufacturers have level 3 ADAS in production. Like legally certified and everything.
Their batteries ( both mobile and grid storage) are nothing special, the 4680 is MiA, catl and BYD have bigger market shares already, I don't know about Panasonic and other manufacturers, could be too.
And the robot is vaporware unless proven otherwise.
I'm not a gambler so I won't short it (Elon can give himself trillions in government assistance now), but sure as hell wouldn't hold it anymore.
Their batteries may not be special, but if they can scale to what they were promising a few years ago (which is a much bigger "if" than it used to be), their battery business could easily surpass BYD's, which could justify its current market cap on its own (but not much higher).
I've got mixed feelings on FSD. I think it's nearly "solved" for places with nice climate, but I think there's a lot of work needed to deal with inclement weather like snow and slush and even heavy rain. I don't think any company has any idea how to solve that issue, so they're just pushing it down the road until someone else solves it first.
How would they scale it? I don't think they have the factories even if they figure out the process. Last time I looked they had 2 (or 3?) locations.
Their factories in Nevada, Texas, and China all have a lot of extra space and/or land for expansion. They've also been considering building more factories in Mexico, another one in Europe, and possibly SE Asia, though it's unclear whether any of those are going to materialize - especially with the current downturn in sales.
But that's only 3 factories that they do have, building new ones would take years, they have lost the first mover advantage if they ever have one.
My understanding ia that they get carbon credits for producing EVs which they then sell to carbon producers to offset. They also produce batteries.
That being said, its not going to take a deep dive unless they have consecutive missed eps targets. Even then though, part of Elons MO is to promose some visonary tech that takes year to peoduce so just sitbtight man becauae im telling you its coming...
This time around its robots for the home. Laughable not because we dont have the technology, but who has the disposable income to afford it? Even if they come out, and it turns out people buy them (which also means not heing turned off by musk); where is the moat? What stops a competitor like boston dynamics, samsung, etc from seeing it as validation of a market and then entering it?
Even if Musk wasn't a Nazi, he's still a big enough douchebag that I wouldn't want to buy a car associated with him. And even if he wasn't a douchebag, the Cybertruck has demonstrated what kind of stupid shit Tesla does when they take orders from him. And even without Musk's influence, I still wouldn't buy a Tesla because there are so many other options on the market, and people have gotten very vocal about things like the build quality of Tesla cars.
That's gotta start hurting their stock price at some point.
In my opinion this shows how fucking unrelated the whole financial sector is to reality.
It should be shut down or unrelated to the real world.