this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2025
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Originality.AI looked at 8,885 long Facebook posts made over the past six years.

Key Findings

  • 41.18% of current Facebook long-form posts are Likely AI, as of November 2024.
  • Between 2023 and November 2024, the average percentage of monthly AI posts on Facebook was 24.05%.
  • This reflects a 4.3x increase in monthly AI Facebook content since the launch of ChatGPT. In comparison, the monthly average was 5.34% from 2018 to 2022.
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[–] [email protected] 9 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

I pretty sure they selected posts from a 6 year period, not that they spent six years on the analysis.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 21 hours ago

I can’t even fathom how they would go about testing if it’s an AI or not. I can’t imagine that’s an exact science either.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 21 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (2 children)

In that case, how/why did they only choose 8000 posts over 6 years? Facebook probably gets more than 8000 new posts per second.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

I was wondering how far I'd have to scroll before getting to someone who doesn't understand statistics complaining about the sample size...

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 hours ago

There's likely been trillions of posts on Facebook during that time frame. Is a sample size of 8000 really sufficient for a corpus that large?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Every study uses sampling. They don't have the resources to check everything. I have to imagine it took a lot of work to verify conclusively whether something was or was not generated. It's a much larger sample size than a lot of studies.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

I have to imagine it took a lot of work to verify conclusively whether something was or was not generated

The study is by a company that creates software to detect AI content, so it's literally their whole job

(it also means there's a conflict of interest, since they want to show how much content their detector can detect)

It’s a much larger sample size than a lot of studies.

It's an extremely small proportion of the total number of Facebook posts though. Nowhere near enough for statistical significance.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

It's an extremely small proportion of the total number of Facebook posts though. Nowhere near enough for statistical significance.

The proportion of the total population size is almost irrelevant when you use random sampling. It doesn't rely on examining a large portion of the population, but rather that it becomes increasingly unlikely for the sample set to deviate dramatically from the population size as the number of samples rises. This is a function of the number of samples you take, decoupled from the population size.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)

Usually if you see a major poll in a population, it'll be something like 1k to 2k people who get polled, regardless of the population size.