this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2025
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Balatro
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It's a common thing with every game that has a significant element of random chance: Humans are just bad at understanding probabilities.
I think a lot of game design philosophy actually suggest that you should fudge probabilities to "feel" right. Gsmes like Fire Emblem and (I think) xcom actually lie about the probabilities and skew them to the extremes because that's just how people "feel" is correct.
Anyway, Balatro doesn't do any of that. The cards you are offered are entirely deterministic based on the seed, and don't depend on what cards you buy or skip. In each ante, rewards are in a specific order which isn't changed by anything in game.
I think the only luck manipulation it does is, if you are playing on gold stake, it will reroll the seed until the first legendary Joker is one you don't have a gold seal on.