this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2025
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US' help was critical so far and when it was paused for six months Ukraine noticed.
On the other hand, when it was paused, Ukraine noticed, but didn't immediately fail. On top of that there were recent reports that Ukraine has enough supplies until summer. On top of that there Zelensky's statement that Ukraine is now producing up to 30% of what it needs in the battlefield. And on top of that, while US help was significant, the contributions from other countries were also nontrivial and many of them invested into increasing production.
So all in all, US' help was and stays important (even if it was quite often a little too late), but if it stops, I believe Ukraine can still win, but that will be quite bad for the States as Trump will not be able to claim this victory and also the military industry will lose quite a lot of advertisement when Ukraine wins with Owen, German, French, Korean or any other weapons.
I hope you're right.
This could be the catalyst to the EU pulling its head out its ass vis-à-vis defence.
The political state of Germany worries me as does France. Hopefully Hungary and Slovakia can't block too much
As it stands, Orbán is more likely to lose the 2026 election than not.
Hopefully that gives him something to worry about other than blocking stuff for Ukraine.
Also, I hope that if the German government won't listen to common sense and decency, they will at least listen to Rheinmetall lobbyists. There is a Rheinmetall factory in Ukraine now, isn't it?