this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2025
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Ukraine

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I was reading this Foreign Affairs on the US abandoning Europe and this paragraph struck me.

The most important priority of European governments is to secure their continent. The European security order hinges on holding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist ambitions at bay. On the day that Trump won reelection, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, announced that “the objectives of the special military operation [in Ukraine] remain unchanged and will be achieved”—a rejoinder to Trump’s campaign pledge to end the war immediately. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled that he might be willing to agree to a cease-fire that includes some loss of territory in exchange for credible security guarantees such as Ukraine’s admission to NATO and support for its defense. But Keith Kellogg, the incoming U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has said that the United States should bring Ukraine to the negotiating table by withholding weapons and suggested that a cease-fire built on Ukraine’s acceptance of a de facto long-term Russian occupation of eastern Ukraine could be on the table. And although Zelensky wants NATO membership and ongoing U.S. military aid to ensure that the rest of the country remains independent and sovereign, neither the United States nor Russia currently seems ready to agree to such terms.

It's a 180 which I've been fearing with Trump, but still seems hard to believe.

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[–] doo 34 points 3 days ago (1 children)

US' help was critical so far and when it was paused for six months Ukraine noticed.

On the other hand, when it was paused, Ukraine noticed, but didn't immediately fail. On top of that there were recent reports that Ukraine has enough supplies until summer. On top of that there Zelensky's statement that Ukraine is now producing up to 30% of what it needs in the battlefield. And on top of that, while US help was significant, the contributions from other countries were also nontrivial and many of them invested into increasing production.

So all in all, US' help was and stays important (even if it was quite often a little too late), but if it stops, I believe Ukraine can still win, but that will be quite bad for the States as Trump will not be able to claim this victory and also the military industry will lose quite a lot of advertisement when Ukraine wins with Owen, German, French, Korean or any other weapons.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I hope you're right.

This could be the catalyst to the EU pulling its head out its ass vis-à-vis defence.

[–] doo 2 points 2 days ago

Yeah, me too. Looks like this year will be make it or break it.

[–] carpelbridgesyndrome 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The political state of Germany worries me as does France. Hopefully Hungary and Slovakia can't block too much

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

As it stands, Orbán is more likely to lose the 2026 election than not.

Hopefully that gives him something to worry about other than blocking stuff for Ukraine.

Also, I hope that if the German government won't listen to common sense and decency, they will at least listen to Rheinmetall lobbyists. There is a Rheinmetall factory in Ukraine now, isn't it?