this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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Dead party walking: Freeland quits, Trudeau clings to power (www.nationalobserver.com)
submitted 5 days ago by Joker to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

Right now there's a higher chance of the Bloc Québécois forming the official opposition than the NDP, which hasn't happened since 1993. Once polls incorporate Freeland's departure into the Liberal numbers, I'm pretty sure the Bloc will be forecast to win more seats than the Liberals.

Unfortunately I don't think the NDP has a shot of forming any significant portion of our next government. They 100% need to dump Singh and get their platform message out better. There actually aren't very many tossup LPC/NDP seats, just 4/16. So it's unlikely to me that we'll get an NDP swing from LPC votes.

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Effectively what the forecasts are saying:

  • BC swings conservative. The NDP lose half their seats there. CPC wins 80%
  • AB unsurprisingly stays CPC
  • Ontario swings massively to CPC, with CPC winning 80% of seats. The NDP steal 5 seats from the Liberals, but ~60 seats go from LPC to CPC.
  • Quebec sees modest increase in Bloc seats, all coming from LPC
  • The Maritimes swing hard to CPC, Liberals lose every maritime province and keep only a sprinkle of seats
[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

BC swings conservative because they wanted to kick Trudeau out. Which gives some idea of the relative intelligence of the voters. Think you should at least need to pass a test to vote.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago

Proportional representation would force John Rustad to work much harder to win a majority as he would need 51% of the vote instead of 44%. Hell he could win a majority with only 30% of the vote if he knows how to play the ridings well.

[–] PlzGivHugs 1 points 4 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Oh, I'm definately not expecting NDP to win the next election. My thought is more that if the Liberal party keeps imploding at the rate it is right now, it might be possible that NDP might be able to breifly take power once people are tired of CPC rule and the pendulum swings back. I don't expect they'll stay in power long (or at least not with any integrity) but at that point, it'd be in their best interest to pass electoral reform to avoid splitting votes with the Liberals.

I know its a long shot, and its unlikely they'd implement anything better than instant runoff / ranked choice, but at this point, thats the only hope for better goverment that seems at all feasible.