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The GPT Era Is Already Ending (www.theatlantic.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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If this is the way to superintelligence, it remains a bizarre one. “This is back to a million monkeys typing for a million years generating the works of Shakespeare,” Emily Bender told me. But OpenAI’s technology effectively crunches those years down to seconds. A company blog boasts that an o1 model scored better than most humans on a recent coding test that allowed participants to submit 50 possible solutions to each problem—but only when o1 was allowed 10,000 submissions instead. No human could come up with that many possibilities in a reasonable length of time, which is exactly the point. To OpenAI, unlimited time and resources are an advantage that its hardware-grounded models have over biology. Not even two weeks after the launch of the o1 preview, the start-up presented plans to build data centers that would each require the power generated by approximately five large nuclear reactors, enough for almost 3 million homes.

https://archive.is/xUJMG

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

The quote is misquoting the analogy. It is an infinite number of monkeys.

The point of the analogy is about randomness and infinity. Any page of gibberish is equally as likely as a word perfect page of Shakespeare given equal weighting to the entry if characters. There are factors introduced with the behaviours of monkeys and placement of keys, but I don't think that is the point of the analogy.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

Yeah, it always seems that every time someone questions the wisdom or validity of this analogy seems not to understand it.

It's either the misunderstanding that the constraints of the hypothetical are finite (a million vs. infinity).

Or the insistence that any sufficiently infinitesimal chance is "practically zero", when literally any likelihood multiplied by infinity is going to guarantee an occurrence.

You can actually expand the infinite monkey theory to say that an infinite number of monkeys using typewriters for an infinite amount of time would write every single book ever written in any language the keyboard is capable of typing, as well as every possible book that could ever even theoretically exist, an infinite number of times, and still be correct.

Any infinite set of random (or even semi-random) characters will contain every possible set of characters that could ever exist, of any length. The works of Shakespeare are also encoded into Pi, we just haven't calculated enough digits to discover one yet (and very likely never will).

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

It was a big YouTube science video subject last week... Suddenly everyone has a real educated opinion on the matter with statistics and everything.