this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2024
-37 points (16.4% liked)

Conservative

403 readers
50 users here now

A place to discuss pro-conservative stuff

  1. Be excellent to each other. Civility, No Racism, No Bigotry, No Slurs, No calls to violences, No namecalling, All that good stuff, follow lemm.ee's rules, follow the rules of your instance, etc.

  2. We are a Pro-Conservative forum. Posts must have a clear pro-conservative, or anti left-wing bias. We are interested in promoting conservatism and discussing things that might get ignored elsewhere. All sources are acceptable, however reputable sources with a reputation for factual reporting are preferred.

  3. Dissent is allowed in the comments, but try to be constructive; if you do not agree, then provide a reason which is backed up by references or a reasonable alternative interpretation of the provided facts. That means the left wing is welcome to state their opinions, but please keep it in good faith.

A polite request, not a rule, if you feel the need to report a comment, please don't reply to it.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

Yes, it's a PCM meme, but still accurate as fuck.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Is it a likely progression? And how long do you believe it will take? Also, I'm curious what you are basing your hope on and what the you believe the knock-on effects will be. It would be good to know if something similar happened in the US or another country in order to compare.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I'm not an psychic, but I'd imagine the more we deport, the more wages will go up. Hopefully in 4 years, we'll be in a much better place.

The biggest side effect would be higher rates for fruit/veggies and for landscaping. But I'd pay extra for fruit I know is grown ethically. I already do, as much as I try.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Setting aside all the other issues, if you think creating a worker shortage (which might increase wages short term) will do anything good for your economy: it won't.

Historically economic growth is pretty closely tied to population growth. More hands create more value. Removing hands will make the remaining hands more valuable but there is still less value created. And the people that hold economic power aren't going to give up their share easily, so one way or another it will eventually mean even less for the workers.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

There was population growth in the late 1800s, it wasn't until the population got paid more that the economy took off.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

While that's true, the capitalists where getting richer and richer even before the big economic growth. They don't really care. Also, the wage increases had to be hard fought for by a united working class. I don't see american workers unite right now to fight the rich.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Without exploitable labor employers will have to pay employees more. Workers won't have to fight, they can do nothing and wages will still increase.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

They can move production to places with available labour. You know for example the places you deported all that labour to.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Which is where the tariffs come in. Helps balance everything out.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

By making the products more expensive while your wages stagnate? How's that balancing anything out?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Why will wages stagnante?

A rising tide raises all boats or in this case wages.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Not if the work follows the workers outside of the US

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I read your non-response, which is why I asked how wages will stagnate to your response to tarrifs.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The argument was that wages rise if labour is scarce. My counter is that labour will just be moved outside with the people, thus countering the scarcity, thus making wages stagnate rather than increase.

Somehow tariffs are supposed to balance this out. Which is really the nonsense in all of this.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Somehow tariffs are supposed to balance this out. Which is really the nonsense in all of this.

So you have no rebuttal to tarrifs stopping companies from moving manufacturing outside the US.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Yes, to some extend they can achieve that, if they are high enough to cancel out the wage differences.

But they have a lot of additional effects. Companies with small margins that import ressources will have to raise prices to stay profitable, others will do it because they can riding the wave of those that must. All in all tarrifs just raise prices.

Thus the nominally raised wages stagnate in buying power.

So either the wages stagnate without the tarrifs because the work follows the cheap labour or they stagnate because tarrifs raise the prices alongside with the rising wages. The tarrifs achieve nothing for the buying power of consumers.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

Yes, the buying power of consumers will take a hit from tariffs.

At first. But many of those consumers will benefit from increased wages.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

You don't have to completely offset wages with tarrifs just make the ROI on moving take 10 years.

The steal tarrifs Trump used led to increased production in the US while Europe production stayed the same. Tarrifs do not have to hurt buying power.

Based on your arguments I assume you're against minimum wage too.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Based on your arguments I assume you're against minimum wage too.

That wouldn't be accurate. I am for global taxes and minimum wages to stop the whole "we'll just move the company elsewhere" bullshit all together

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

The same argument you made about tarrifs can be made about minimum wage. Though I doubt you're concerned with buying power, you seem more like a everone gets the same thing type of person.

The tarrifs Trump used helped the US. US steal companies were increasing production while Europe was stagnant. If buying power was down production would follow, steal worker wages increased over that period too.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Creating an under class of people doesn't help. Look at the South vs the North. The south had slaves, the north largely did not. The north has much more industry.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

I'm not an psychic, but I'd imagine the more we deport, the more wages will go up

I think it's a reasonable assumption, but the reason I was asking for the basis for that hope is because I was hoping you had done some research and found some data to base that assumption on. It could have been a solid basis for it. In the UK, where Brexit was touted to achieve the same goal, the wages did go up (not a very good source, but well) however they ended up asking for the pickers, truck drivers, and handiworkers to return (EuroNews 2021, BBC 2023, Le Monde).

If you were to take a look at Germany (3rd biggest economy in the world), it struggles to get workers for elderly care and instead of increasing wages to attract more people, they are instead making easier to hire abroad e.g India.

The biggest side effect would be higher rates for fruit/veggies and for landscaping. But I'd pay extra for fruit I know is grown ethically. I already do, as much as I try.

I agree that the cost of food and landscaping will go up, which could be troubling for some who hoped for the opposite. Given how wages have not risen at the same rate as inflation, it is difficult to share your hope for increased wages - be it for the pickers and landscapers or the people paying for the produce and services. But, I may be wrong, I'm not a psychic either.

I do commend you for willing to pay more for ethically grown (and harvested) fruit. Whether your fellow countrymen and women are is yet to be seen.


In conclusion, my fear is that while there might be mass deportations and a real chance of wages going up, IMO the most likely outcomes are

  • a drastic labour shortage in under-regulated and low-wage jobs previously held by the deported
  • a quick increase in products and services of said jobs
  • following options:
    • lobbying to simplify and speed up the return of said workers to keep wages / costs down
    • prison workers being forced to do the jobs (some places already do that) --> prison industrial complex growth
    • wage increases starting from minimum wage to attract US citizens to do the jobs
    • lots of businesses going bankrupt followed by consolidation by larger businesses and acute risk or establishment of monopolies

Whether those are all good, whether they happen together or separately, I don't know, but my hopes aren't very high that the total outcome will be positive.

Good luck though.