this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

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[โ€“] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/

According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we're still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn't on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(

[โ€“] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

It's certainly possible. The polls are showing it's effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don't have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.