this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2024
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Science Memes

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579
50% survival rate (sh.itjust.works)
submitted 2 days ago by sjmarf to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 49 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Can somebody explain the difference between the mathematician and the scientist parts of this?

[–] sjmarf 206 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

The normal person thinks that because the last 20 people survived, the next patient is very likely to die.

The mathematician considers that the probability of success for each surgery is independent, so in the mathematician’s eyes the next patient has a 50% chance of survival.

The scientist thinks that the statistic is probably gathered across a large number of different hospitals. They see that this particular surgeon has an unusually high success rate, so they conclude that their own surgery has a >50% chance of success.

[–] [email protected] 59 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Thanks. I suspect a mathematician would consider the latter point too though.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Normal people too.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The popularity of casinos and lotteries say otherwise.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Someone who goes to casinos would come to the same conclusion, thinking that the surgeon is 'running hot'.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

And me mate paul

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

My aunt Nancy would surely be in the 50% who die

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

Would be or do you want her to be? Sound like aunt Nancy isn't very nice.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Anyone with a good high school education should understand this.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

That's sort of why I asked. I thought I was missing something but no, the meme is apparently assuming academic professionals are dummies. Not to say that we should expect nuance and robust portrayals from a meme.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Mathematician sees each individual outcome as independent 50% chance.

Scientist realises that the distribution of failures and successes puts him in a favorable position. e.g. for the 20 in a row to be a success in a 50% fail rate that means the previous 20 were all failures or some similar circumstances where the success rate rose over time or similar polarization of outcomes in the sample data which places them above average odds.