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I live here and don't need to guess :) We would be perfectly fine if Germany (mainly) wasn't buying energy from us when prices are high on the continent. Due to how the energy market works we then have to pay those prices as well in the region bordering Germany.
Splitting Germany up into energy regions (like Sweden is split up into four) would help - but Germany doesn't want to.
If you want to keep guessing instead of appreciating my first hand knowledge that's fine - it's just a bit tiresome.
https://www.sydsvenskan.se/2024-05-28/darfor-ar-elpriset-mer-an-tio-ganger-hogre-i-lund-an-i-lulea/
I can't find a way to dodge the paywall to that article, but the short blurb I was able to translate, makes it sound like my guess is at least part of the problem:
That said, I do agree that Germany should've long been split into two zones, at least until transmission capacity catches up. But alas, most people in Germany don't even recognize that the lack of transmission capacities as the source of the problem and rather blame it on us importing expensive electricity from France.
It's actually those parallels why I'm so distrustful: I'm far from an expert on the topic, quite the opposite if anything, but given how many people, even politicians, put out even dumber claims much more confidently, I'm always wary about such statements.
Our transmission capacity is enough for our own needs (since the danes forced us to close the perfectly working nuclear plant Barsebäck) - but it's not enough for our needs and Germany's.
I'm very much pro EU but I do have issues with a huge part of Sweden having 10x the electricity prices of the rest of the country. It hits our manufacturing, farmers etc. I would be in favor of limiting our export to just our surplus. Germany could've skipped closing down their own fully working nuclear plants ...
(Sweden and Norway are also the ones to thank for Denmark being able to live mostly off wind power since it's our hydro and nuclear power that they use to balance their network)
I own a rather large property so I've had to become "an expert" on our electricity issues.
From the paywalled article:
Ok, I think I'm starting to see the issue now. One thing I've missed is that the "tiny" amount Germany is importing yearly is actually half of the consumption South Sweden. That sure puts a bit of stress on the system.
I'll say that I'm still not fully convinced due to the lack of concrete numbers, but it's something I'll keep in mind in the future.