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The air begins to leak out of the overinflated AI bubble (www.latimes.com)

submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] sugar_in_your_tea 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

There's more to it as well, such as:

investors coming back from vacation and selling off losses and whatnot
investors expecting reduced spending between summer and holidays; we're past the "back to school" retail bump and into a slower retail economy
upcoming election, with polls shifting between Trump and Harris

September is pretty consistently more volatile than other months, and has net negative returns long-term. So it's not just the Fed discussing rate cuts (that news was reported over the last couple months, so it should be factored in), but just normal sideways trading in September.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

We already knew about back to school sales, they happen every year and they are priced in. If there was a real stock market dump every year in September, everyone would short September, making a drop in August and covering in September, making September a positive month again

[–] sugar_in_your_tea 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It's not every year, but it is more than half the time. Source:

History suggests September is the worst month of the year in terms of stock-market performance. The S&P 500 SPX has generated an average monthly decline of 1.2% and finished higher only 44.3% of the time dating back to 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

S&P 500 up this September officially

[–] sugar_in_your_tea 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Woo! We're part of the 44% or so. :)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

45% now since the data only goes back 100 years