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Yeah, but his last prediction was 100% wrong, or his current one is...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman
So if he's right with this prediction that Harris wins, his last L was just like a month ago.
That wasn't a prediction, he just said Biden had a better chance of winning in 2024 than Harris.
Since that is now an alternate timeline, we will never know if he was right.
Keep in mind that he doesn't try to predict who will poll better, in fact he thinks polls are irrelevant.
Or, we could just accept the simple fact that if the candidates change, so too does the prediction. He made his predictions based on the options available at the time.
Kinda shortsided to consider that an L.
Bone apple tea!
Ah shit! Guilty af
What?
He claimed replacing Biden was bad...
Despite all evidence showing anyone else would do better.
Biden was replaced, and despite being very unpopular the last time she was up for president, she skyrocketed in the polls compared to Biden.
Hell, we don't even need to wait for the election, the massive gains in polls alone shows it was a good idea to replace a candidate that Dem voters just didn't fucking want.
Like, do you even know his method?
https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm
We don't meet 8 of his 13 criteria, so by his "proven method" Republicans will win.
So either his prediction is right and his method is wrong, or hes not using the same method and past predictions aren't relevant
Uh, no. He said Democrats meet 8 of 13 keys, and that's why he thinks Harris will win.
\sigh
As stated oh, so, so-so, so, so many times, replacing the incumbent has historically been suicidal. Based on the trends, it's a horrible idea.
One, this seems like a different type of prediction.
Two, it sounds like a few of his predictors could only be determined after she began her run, so there was no way to make this call until it happened. I don't think anyone could have predicted the excitement she's created, either.
I did, a long with a metric shit ton of other people, literally all over...
When we kept saying:
That included literally everyone except Hillary.
Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, and predictably numbers immediately improved.
It's bad enough moderates kept saying that was wrong at the time, but the complete revisionist history just weeks after it happened is fucking ridiculous.
trump voters barely rewrite history this fast....
You couldn't see it coming.
The politicians you support couldn't see it coming.
The political commentators you listen to couldn't see it coming.
And rather than take a second to see if maybe that means your views are wrong, you just claim "gee, no one could have guessed!". And March forward to the same bullshit, once again insisting your opinions are correct
Like, how the fuck can anyone even pretend that they didn't hear anyone say that Biden was a shit candidate and replacing him would help regardless of who it was?
But did anyone listen after you said 'literally'? I usually tune out when a 'litchally' hits the floor. Sorry, but it's true.
I don't see that he's rewriting history. He thought Biden would do better - but still thinks Harris can win. Or else he thought Biden could do better, but now with the additional new data that came with Harris getting nominated he has indeed changed his mind. But it's not like he's going back and denying his earlier concerns or support of Biden...
Also, his keys aren't supposed to need frequent reevaluation based on fine-grade events, so if they predict she'd win now, they should have predicted she'd win last month. The only information that's been revealed is there wasn't a "primary" challenge for the eventual nominee.