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I am a supporter of access to abortion. I want to get that out of the way before going into the reasons why making access to abortion a central campaign issue is a bad idea.
Yes, most people support the right to choose. But how many people base 100% of their vote on keeping abortion legal? As a ballot initiative, access to abortion does well. As a central issue for a candidacy, it's poison because the reality is pro-choice single-issue voters don't exist.
Pro-life voters are by far the most powerful single-issue voting block in America. Millions of would-be Democrats who truly, honestly believe abortion is murdering babies put aside everything else to try and stop it. It's how the Republicans can get away with having policies that are so harmful to children after they're born. No other issue exists as long as abortion is on the menu.
How many current Harris supporters would vote for Trump if their positions on abortion were swapped? Millions of Trump voters would swap.
The GOP was actually a little terrified of Roe being overturned because nothing saps political steam like achieving a goal. Lots of voters in states that now restrict abortion who spent 50 years voting to try and get Roe overturned suddenly felt the freedom to vote on other issues. But with so much Democratic effort being focused on restoring abortion rights, those voters are locked back in as solid GOP votes. The better political move for the Dems would be to essentially ignore the issue on the campaign trail and try to get a ballot initiate through. It would protect the right to choose while simultaneously neutralizing the GOP's strongest hand.
I have to disagree with this.
A study done recently using data from the 2020-2022 US midterm elections found that people's views on abortion directly affected changes in vote choice, while other factors like the economy were blamed on both sides, and were substantially less influential in swaying votes. (here's an article with more detail regarding the study)
I don't think most are single-issue voters, on either side, but yes, Republicans do tend to vote more single-issue than Democrats. That said, if the Democrats stopped making access to abortion a central campaign issue, not only would it lose them support from those who are, y'know, big on women's rights, a substantial amount of the population, but it wouldn't actually change most Republican voters, since they would still be able to vote for a candidate that would be more strict on abortion.
The only shift caused by de-prioritizing abortion as a campaign issue would be pushing more Democrats toward either Independent, or right-wing candidates, both of which make it harder for the Democrats to win against the explicitly anti-choice party of Republicans.