this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
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While this isn't likely to amount to anything, it is interesting to see Russia moving towards a negotiated end to the invasion. This war seems unlikely to end with a total loss for Russia, leaving two likely outcomes:
The question this sort of announcement brings up is: are Russia's red lines moving? While they may still be in the unacceptable region for Ukraine's negotiating position, it may signal that they are starting to shift. Maybe losing control of the Donetsk Oblast is no longer actually a red line and they would be willing to give up on that area entirely. Sure, that still leaves them well past the "complete territorial integrity" goal of Ukraine. But, it may also be that Ukraine's own red lines no longer extend quite as far in that direction as they used to.
And yes, morally, this is all kinda shit. The truly moral thing is for Russia to fuck right off and Putin to end up taking a swan dive from a fifth story window. But, ending wars often results in a lot of abandoned morals.
Equipment estimates show that Russia may have 2 years worth of equipment left at best. Unless China starts supplying them with tanks and APCs Russian soldiers will only be armed with rocks and sticks.
People have been making those predictions ever since the war started, I'll believe it when I see it.
The invasion consisted of T-80, T-90, T-72 tanks. Today Russia is fielding T-55 and T-62 tanks. Are you not seeing that?
I've also seen people say they'll be out of equipment in months to years.