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Doing more research, candidates that were picked from contested conventions are absolutely less likely to win in historically.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/
So close enough with a candidate as strong with his party as Trump.
Exactly. It's extremely late in the game for this to happen. I believe Biden absolutely needed to not run for a second term, but he should have made that decision a year ago, not a few months before the general election. The stubbornness of the DNC has likely doomed the US to a second Trump presidency. I hope I'm wrong though.