this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
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Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

And 60% polled said trump was going to win....

But I'm sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago (2 children)

It doesn't matter who people expect to win and who they consider the underdog. The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.

And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.

*In swing states, unfortunately.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.

Factually untrue:

But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

You didn't even have to click the article, OP quoted it in the summary...

Did you not even read that?

Are you going to change your conclusion now?

Or will you act like a trump supporter and change your "logic" so that you still get the conclusion you want?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup.

That's all I care about.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Why?

The general won't be head to head.

It's going to have RFK jr's brain worm, just like this poll.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

No, the general mostly will be head to head. Because RFK isn't even on the ballot in most states.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Can you provide a single state where the only two options are going to be Biden or trump then?

Because I don't believe there's a single one that's actually "head to head" where the small part of this poll you care about would ever matter.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Moving goalposts so soon? You don't seem to care about RFK any more.

The only 3rd party candidates in that poll with over 2% are RFK and West. In most states, neither are on the ballot. So the relevant poll results are head to head.

But keep trying to twist the results to explain Why This Is Bad News For Biden. Maybe you'll land a job at the NYT.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more

Why would I?

You said you only care about the head to head poll numbers.

I want to know a single state where the election is actually head to head.

Can you not do that?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I only care about the head to head numbers because the alternative includes candidates who most people can't vote for.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The main third party candidates are in the majority of battleground states tho...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html

The states that actually matter.

What aren't you understanding about this?

I mean. That's not even all the states, they have months to get signatures to increase that

And moving forward with Biden is helping them get signatures.

There is just sooooo much you're not thinking of. And you seem actively resistant to learning about any of it.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

I understand that your preferred poll includes candidates who most people can't vote for.

If I saw a poll where the choices were Biden, Trump, and Taylor Swift then I wouldn't pay any attention to that one either. You probably would, though, if it was bad for Biden.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

So you didn't look at that link and see that the battleground states have third party candidates already on their ballots?

Or you don't understand that those are the states that matter?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Yes, and I also saw that the top 3rd party choices in the poll are not on the ballot in most battleground states.

So most people who chose 3rd party in the poll will end up voting for someone else.

So that poll is useless.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Yes, and I also saw that the top 3rd party choices in the poll are not on the ballot in most battleground states

....

I mean. That's literally not true.

But I've already given you the sources that show that.

I led you to the water homie, I can't make you drink it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

RFK is on the ballot in CA, UT, NM, OK, MN, MI, and DE

West is on the ballot in OR, AK, CO, VT, and SC

If you are in the battleground states of WI, PA, GA, NV, NC, or AZ then neither one is an option.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago

A lot of people are afraid Trump is going to win, and that's motivating them to vote for Biden. The results you're quoting support this.

I want Democrats to think Trump is going to win, otherwise they'll stay home like they did in 2016.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Not quite. 60% said they don’t think Biden can do the job, not that Trump would win

Edit: read further down and yeah 6 in 10 said they think Trump will win, you right

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 month ago

Yeah there's not much good news in there...

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I agree things are bad, and I wish we had a better candidate than Biden.

But we don't. Biden is the candidate, and he must win.

I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won't win. Overconfidence hurt Clinton in several states. Democrats are going to be talking about it, encouraging their friends to vote, shaming people for supporting Trump, and freaking out about another Trump presidency. We don't want complacency.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win

This is like as a plane plunges into the ocean, the pilots making an announcement thanking passengers for putting their seatbelts on.

And I have zero idea why you're still insisting Biden can't be replaced

I could have sworn we got over that speed bump. A couple times really...

Edit:

Yeah. That was you

Sorry man. I dont think us repeating this again will help.

You're gonna have to ask someone else for help