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Nate Silver: Joe Biden should drop out
(www.natesilver.net)
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this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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I didn’t vote for Biden in the 2020 primary and I don’t disagree with you on those points. That easily could be how it plays out. I just think if Biden resigns, there’s a high chance of a split in the party (after a contested convention) and we’re all imagining a new candidate we like (or just a “generic democrat”) replacement rather than a real person who possibly has baggage, hasn’t been tested on the national stage (or was bad on it like Kamala Harris), or won’t be able to unite the coalition that backed Biden in 2020.
Basically, I think it’s a huge gamble this late in the election. Biden shouldn’t have run again and when he did, should have faced a real challenge in the primary. But that isn’t what happened and now I think changing course over one debate isn’t worth the risk.
I'll agree that it's a dilemma for sure. To me I think both situations carry baggage. At this point, things are looking so atrociously bad that I think the risk is worth it and any candidate nominated at convention who may have baggage will probably running off the highs of being a fresh face before the baggage becomes a serious issue (and sad we have to talk about baggage when Trump is the opposition). Realistically it would probably be Whitmer or Newsom.
The thing to me is that this debate isn't a one-off. It's the culmination of what people have seen and been warning of and what's been reflected in polls for quite a long time now.
I'll be clear that I didn't vote for Biden either during the 2020 primaries but I did ultimately vote for him in November. I'll vote for him again if it comes down to it. But I'm not who you need to convince, unfortunately.
Edit: Let me also just say that it's better now than later. What if Biden has a medical emergency in October? At the rate of his decline and age that is a very real possibility.
Also never been a fan of Biden (but voted for him, and will again, if I have to). You're falling into a Sunk Cost Fallacy. Yes, anyone chosen to replace Biden would be a gamble. But, Biden is a losing horse. The right time to replace him was last year. But, just because we missed that opportunity doesn't mean we should throw good time after bad. He should be replaced before things get so late it literally cannot be done.
This wasn't some otherwise strong candidate, who just had a bad day. Biden is already struggling in polling. While the economy hasn't been fantastic, it's good enough that he should be crushing Trump. Even in 2016, Clinton was polling ahead of Trump and still managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden isn't winning. He's maybe tied and maybe losing in current polling. Trump had already proven that he can be convicted in court and not lose support. There's just not much left to hurt Trump. And Biden doesn't seem to have anything left to gain support. Things are not going to get better for Biden.
Biden is losing this race. It's time to follow the rats off the ship, before we're trying to escape a ship on the bottom of the ocean.