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US Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarine surfaces off Norway in unusual flex as 'Doomsday' plane flies overhead
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2024
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I've never wanted to be wrong about anything more than WW3...
But I keep seeing all these articles that make it really look like WW3 is right around the corner...
Like, the entire point of SSBNs is to hide and no one knows where they are. Popping up just to flex is not a good sign. It's trading the actual point of their existence (no one knows where our nukes are) for a show of force.
It's not a rational choice to do this, Russia knows we have SSBNs all over the globe, they don't need to actually see one and know where it is
Knowing they're there and seeing they're there are very different things. Don't dismiss the psychological value of the latter.
And don't dismiss that they'd kill to know the location of a SSBN at any time under normal conditions.
Like, I don't know how high of a federal clearance you e ever gotten, but literally everything about a SSBNs schedule is at least secret. The people on them don't even know where they are 99% of the time.
Russia isn't shooting down a nuke anyways, it doesn't matter where it's coming from, it's hitting what it's aimed.
It's literally an intercontinental ballistic missile...
https://www.salon.com/2022/03/03/why-scientists-still-cant-figure-out-how-to-intercept-icbms/
America isn't even confident we could shoot one of NK's down. We could launch from a SSBN literally on the other side of the planet and absolutely nothing would stop it from hitting Moscow.
We gave up valuable intelligence for literally zero reason.
It shows that we're irrational for doing it. Or even worse, that we thought Russia is so irrational that they needed to see it. Making both of us irrational.
The entire reason SSBNs are the threat they are, is you can only beat a ICBM by taking it out before it launches, and no one has a clue where the SSBNs are.
When were acting rational and want a show of force. We park an LHD or even Aircraft Carrier squadron off a coast.
Edit:
Like, if Russia happened to have sonar going in that area, and they just saw it surface...
They can compare sound signatures of that time period and may possibly isolate the distinctive sound of a SSBN. Something they've been trying to find for decades and could possibly lead to them being able to find SSBNs out in the wild.
This is a god awful decision that has potentially huge ramifications...
I get people wouldn't know about all of this, but that doesn't mean it's not a big deal.
These subs all have home ports and can be observed when they leave, so that's probably not a big deal?
Well they can also operate unobserved for 9months to a year depending on food stocks and personnel
There's a lot of noise around a harbour, and unlikely to be opposition right outside.
Completely different than middle of the ocean.
I don't know... admittedly, I only remember some vague bits from Tom Clancy novels, but didn't Soviet attack subs wait outside the home ports for the SSBNs to try to stay on their tail, and they never managed to?
I should dig up The Hunt for Red October, I guess, but given current geopolitics maybe Red Storm Rising is a better fit :)
I wouldn't be surprised.
But I know one of the most classified parts of a sub, is what the propeller looks like. Because then you could determine what it sounds like.
Knowing one was at X location at Y time is dangerous because then recordings can be compared to other periods and if anything stands out...
Then you can search for that.
It's just a whole lot of risk in area we go thru ridiculous pains to minimize any risk, for no legit payoff.
There's just no logic behind this move or rationalization of it.