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Yeah - it’s about regional control, and defensive positions.
This comment is sort of a continuation of this one, but not exactly. (Sorry about the link to my instance, I’m new and don’t know how to do the thing.)
The U.S. has long needed a bully in the area to prevent the Middle East from being too unified, so the west can get relatively inexpensive access to its oil.
The state of play right now is that the U.S. actually produces enough petroleum for its own needs, but our western allies do not, and supplying them with enough oil will raise the cost to an unacceptable level/a level where they’ll have to channel money to the Middle East (which hates the U.S. for its meddling, or to Russia, which also hates the U.S.)
In about 10-15 years, technology and renewables will advance to a point where oil demand is going to have decreased to the point where the U.S. can supply all of its needs and those of its western allies without jacking the price up.
That means the U.S. won’t need a bully. But it will mean that the U.S. will cut funding to Israel, and more or less stop coming to their defense. Israel’s plan is to push out every non-Jew, using Zionism as an excuse for awful statecraft, and they’re going to push their borders to easily defensible geographic areas.
Once they do that, they’re going to basically become North Korea of the Middle East - armed to the teeth and hard to get into. Because if they don’t, everyone they’ve been bullying for the past hundred years (yes, this started before the declaration of statehood), is going to wipe them from the map - potentially leading to them launching the nukes they keep pretending they don’t have, so they don’t have to undergo international monitoring.
Assuming, of course, the plot by other countries to destabilize the U.S. fails and U.S. is still major player by the time Israel’s plan is accomplished. If the destabilization effort succeeds, we may see a full scale war against Israel before their aims are achieved.
That’s my take on it, anyway. They won’t stop because they don’t think they can stop, due to how horrible they’ve been. (At the behest of the U.S., who will begin dropping them once their usefulness has ended.)
Is there any evidence to directly prove this claim? This sounds like a made up justification to validate your own opinions. The Middle East isn't divided by the US, it's divided by its own history of imperialism, colonization, oppression and violence based on religious and ethnic lines accross the centuries. There's really no incentive for the US keep the Middle East divided, not to mention that oil producing countries are already united through OPEC.
Besides, why would the US need a bully when it's directly allied with Gulf states? Not only that but those states are also allied with Israel. Who exactly is bullying who? The only agreed upon bully in the region is Iran, it's actually the uniting factor between the Gulf states and the Israelis. Not to mention that the US doesn't need a bully because it's more than capable of doing what it wants.
You understand that it's not only American allies that rely on Middle Eastern oil, right? China, India, Southeast Asia, and so on all rely on Middle Eastern oil and they all have a vested interest in keeping it flowing. If anything, the US is incentivized to sell its own oil since it's a net exporter.
Again, is there any source that backs up this prediction?
This idea that Israel only exists due to US funding is a myth. Israel won all its major wars by itself and it has one of the world's largest and most resilient economies. US aid, which is almost entirely in the form of loans or weapons contracts, account for less than 1% of Israel's GDP.
20% of Israel's citizens aren't Jewish. Also do you even know what Zionism is?
This is historically illiterate point of view. First of all, Israel isn't the bully in this conflict, especially before statehood. If you look at the actual history, you'll how muslims in the region collaborated with the Nazis to help eradicate the Jews during WWII or how the Arab world rejected the 1947 UN peace plan and invaded Israel with the intention to destroy it or again in 1967 during the six day war or again in 1973 Yom Kippur war or the 1920 Nebi Musa riots against Jews in Jerusalem or the 1921 Jaffa riots or the Jaffa deportations by the Ottomans in 1917 or the 1929 riots and massacres (including the Hebron Massacre which destroyed the ancient community there) or the insane number of Palestinian terrorist groups and their attacks on civilians. The number is comically large that there are entire databases dedicated just recording all of them:
https://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terrisraelsum.html
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/comprehensive-listing-of-terrorism-victims-in-israel
Hell, even Wikipedia can't fit all of them in a single article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Terrorist_incidents_in_Israel_by_year
Ffs, the Palestinian leadership at the time, which is arguably the foundation of the modern Palestinian national identity, literally cooperated with the Nazis to a comical degree. The leader at the time, Amin al-Husseini, and his administration literally flew out to Germany and personally met with Hitler. There they both expressed praise and support for each other, and declared desire for cooperation to reach their mutual goals of defeating the British and genociding the Jews. Amin al-Husseini directly told Hitler that Jews shouldn't get a national home, that they were natural allies in their fight against the Jews, and that Fascism is a righteous ideology. Hitler was so impressed that he called him the most important leader in the Middle East and an Aryan because he was white, blone, and had blue eyes. The thing is that muslims at home celebrated the new ties with the axis powers and cooperation between went through the roof. The Palestinian identity was quite literally founded on antisemitism.
Do I need to keep going? I hope not. Keep in mind, this is all history. You can look all of this up yourself to verify.
We have already seen this play out at least three times. All of these wars were coalition wars provoked by the muslim Arabs seeking the full destruction of Israel, and every time Israel won.
What a bad take. The reason they're still fighting is because they're still being attacked.
Oooh. I attracted a 1-day old account that conveniently doesn’t know about U.S. statecraft toward the Middle East for the last 70 years, doesn’t know about the long history of arms transfers to Israel, doesn’t know about the Balfour Declaration, the Jewish terrorism against Britain and Palestine until Britain left the area, or the genocides that happened as soon as Britain stopped offering protection to the Palestinians. You conveniently seem to fail to understand geopolitics in any meaningful contexts.
And then you “Source?” my (very well informed) opinions.
lol. No. Don’t waste my time.
Why don't you try answering his questions? He just demonstrated how the assertions you made in your original post don't make any sense. And your response is a list of random historical generalities without any attempt to dispute the factual and logical inconsistencies of your argument. Oy vey
You're advancing a thesis that the US has been intentionally destabilizing the Middle East for the past 70 years, when the truth is the complete opposite. Destabilizing the region is what causes the price of oil to rise, the best interest of the US is for the region to be more stable so they can sell us more oil for cheaper prices.
You're so massively, incalculably confused and yet you believe yourself to be not only knowledgeable, but capable of explaining the situation to others. Remarkable.
… I just realized you think my comments about Israel being a bully mean you think I mean the U.S. is destabilizing the Middle East.
And while that is true in limited contexts, I’m talking about Israel being a projection of U.S. power in the area, to prevent unity against the west. Obviously, the U.S. destabilizes countries that are opposed to the west, and fosters ones that aren’t.
The crux of the point you’re trying to attack me about is due to your lack of reading comprehension?
Okay.
Edit: Amidst my earlier realization, I edited out a line I should have included:
If you refute my claims, the onus is on you to disprove them. I will not make your argument for you. You must prove the statements you make, and you cannot merely assert that I am wrong while spinning a yarn that is not based in facts. I’m not arguing against your claims because I deem them to be of no value.
Anyway - start here, and stop wasting my time:
United States foreign policy in the Middle East – Wikipedia.
And pay attention to what it says about the 1967/1970 wars in Israel, and U.S. support. It directly contradicts an earlier statement you made.
This sequence of words is utterly meaningless. "You think I meant the US is destabilizing the Middle East, but actually I meant that the US uses Israel in limited contexts in order to destabilize the Middle East".
Huh? You're saying the US destabilizes countries opposed to the west in the Middle East, using Israel as a projection of power. So, you're saying that the US is destabilizing the Middle East. My reading comprehension is just fine, but you just have absolutely no clue what point you're even trying to make. Your position is completely incoherent and paradoxical.
No, it hasn't. The Middle East has never been even remotely unified, why would the US be concerned about that?
If anything, the existence of Israel is the most unifying force for many Middle Eastern countries who can barely agree on anything except hating Israel.
FOH with this bullshit, quote the relevant passage that you claim contradicts me. You constantly dodge and run away from any points made against you and try to move the goalposts to distract from your glaring ignorance and wrongness.
Alright. I’ll back up a bit. I was a bit distracted earlier and didn’t even realize I was dealing with a new account. They had commented on more than one of my posts - I just figured I was dealing with a persistent disinfo account.
So - in my post, I specifically said that was my take. Let’s start from that. I’m not going to deliver evidence for my opinions. That’s a fools errand to try to offer outside sources for those.
So - regarding access to oil. There’s a logical backing to that. Oil drives the world economy. But also the Wikipedia article I linked literally says that, and it provides sources.
Regarding current production of oil - my statement still stands.
The U.S. has a vested interest in keeping Middle East oil flowing and cheap until it’s no longer needed. Price shocks and further raises in oil prices are not conducive to the global economy. If global oil prices go up, it harms countries with free markets as their government can’t merely refuse to sell domestic supplies to stabilize domestic prices. Does it make sense how the U.S. free market system could cause a major domestic economic slowdown if global prices suddenly increased?
They also have a vested interest in having their western allies not grow closer/dependent on to Russia or China. Is that also not self-evident?
Taken together - a stable oil market means a healthy economy and unchanged projection of geopolitical power for the U.S., yes?
Regarding technological change and de-carbonization, I figured that was common knowledge. But I’m realizing my familiarity with that technology/market space for energy production/consumption is something I’ve taken for granted.
Right now renewables provide over 20% of electricity to the U.S. energy grid. I’ve heard (with my own ear) from an industry professional that the U.S. currently produces all of its electricity needs via renewables, but that electricity cannot reach the grid due to lack of investment in interconnection/distribution and regulatory roadblocks. With apologies - I cannot provide a source for their claims, but this was during a technical presentation while they were representing themselves and their organization.
My point, though, is the world is changing quite rapidly. Obviously there won’t be 100% reduction in demand, but enough to make the economics viable the manner I’ve outlined.
The rest of my statement about the U.S. then providing oil to its allies after a technological tipping point on price has been reached, as well as the one regarding no longer offering support to Israel after that is my own opinion, informed by the belief that the U.S. will take measures to stabilize the price of oil in its own domestic market, as too much of a drop in prices could lead to the closure of wells, harm to the domestic economy (due to loss of jobs, and uncontrollable price shocks), and a dependence on foreign oil. By becoming the go-to oil supplier for allies, it also makes those allies more dependent on the U.S. and brings them closer to it.
But Israel is a liability and always has been. They aren’t liked by their neighbors - some of them quite powerful. The relationship with the U.S. is not very mutually beneficial. The U.S. isn’t going to just ice out Israel, but I do believe they are going to withdraw the military support they have traditionally provided, as geopolitical goals change. This is an opinion I hold. Why would the U.S. expend resources without a return on investment?
I believe that all logically checks out as valid geopoliticals goal with solid reasoning - it does to me.
Regarding Israel and pushing non-Jews out: Fact Sheet: Palestinian Citizens of Israel.
You don’t have to read the whole thing, but I specifically wanted to highlight that Palestinians are not given political representation, and that laws exist to prevent the growth and spread of their minority within Israel.
But the actions of Israel against the non-citizens, even non-combatants are fairly clear.
Regarding the history - I feel that is self-evident. I don’t know what they’re on about, but what they said does not align with any factual recounting I’ve ever heard.
And the rest - My opinions, which I’d like to remind you, are fairly well informed.
Skipping over the first part of your comment above, hopefully me stepping back helps to explain it.
It’s not about internal unification, so long as it’s unified with Russia or before that, the USSR.
Oh! The Wikipedia article says that the U.S. provided significant help to Israel. They said Israel won those on their own. Nah. They did alright in ‘67, fully stocked with U.S. weapons, because they knew it was coming. And in 73, the U.S. had to execute operation Nickel Grass to bail Israel out.
And that’s it for today! Tip your servers!
You are completely and utterly confused and mistaken about everything that you just said. I wish I could help you, but the best I can offer is to stop offering opinions on topics that you know nothing about.
How is it so impossible for you to respond to the words I have already written down?
You have repeatedly stated that the US has been intentionally destabilizing the Middle East.
Now you state that:
I know, I literally just explained that fact to you. How is Middle East oil going to keep flowing cheaply if the US destabilizes the region and causes wars and conflict? Please explain how that makes sense to you. You think that oil becomes cheaper when the country is at war? Wtf are you smoking?
Please, for the love of God, respond to my argument instead of going on some tangent about how the Hebrews were enslaved in the Old Testament or some shit. Confront your own ignorance.
Lmfao this would be funny if it weren't so worrying for the future of humanity. The Yom Kippur war began when Egypt and Syria, supported by auxiliary forces from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Kuwait, Tunisia, Morocco, Cuba, and North Korea, launched a surprise attack on Israel on the Holy day of Yom Kippur, October 6th, 1973. The Arabic forces were supplied with weapons by their Soviet allies, and Israel was supplied by their American allies. Just in case you can't count, that's 12 Arabic and communist states versus Israel alone, with the advantage of surprise. Israel proceeded to absolutely rout the opposing forces in a matter of weeks.
Your argument is that the US provided significant help to Israel and they wouldn't have been able to win without the US. It was a fucking surprise attack and they were able to turn the tide within three days. That not even enough time for supplies to get shipped into Israel from the States. Guess what else? The Soviet Union provided more help to Syria and Egypt than the US did to Israel, as it stated in the Wikipedia article which you linked, but apparently didn't take the time to read.
66,00 tons of material from the Soviets versus 55,000 tons from the USA. Please stop spreading propaganda; you're just a happy idiot, but bad actors move people like you around like pawns on a chessboard. Hamas is playing you like a fiddle and you don't even realize.
I don't know how to explain this to you, but the fact that they didn't know it was coming in 73, or many times since then, is exactly why they have some moral ground to stand on. Invading another nation without declaring war in advance is barbaric and cowardly. Regardless of any other opinions that you hold, surely we can agree that any military action should be announced in advance and directed towards military targets? I don't believe that any civilized person can fail to understand that principle. If armed conflict is inevitable, at least give forewarning and let the defenseless women, children, and elderly get to safety.
Israel does that. Hamas does the exact opposite. They go out of their way to attack defenseless Israeli civilians and they actively put their own civilians in harms way so that they can use their preventable deaths for political maneuvering. Absolutely disgusting, indefensible behavior.
I said the U.S. supported Israel so it could be their bully in the region, and you said that I claimed the U.S. was destabilizing the Middle East. Aside from being pretty telling that you made that assumption, I don’t know how your misunderstanding of what I thought was a self-evident statement matters. In my later comment I acknowledged that the U.S. also does destabilize countries in the Middle East(and supports countries that support its aims), as a way of acknowledging (and correcting/clarifying) what you said, even though I thought it was a stupid fucking statement and I knew someone was going to try to get into the weeds with it.
Now you’re asking me to defend my comments on clarifying your misunderstanding? lol.
I note, however, you’ve never challenged the assertion that the U.S. uses Israel as a bully. Merely you’re arguing semantics of a fictional point of disagreement you imagined.
The person I replied to said Israel has always held their own. I showed how they had not, and needed U.S. support to hold their own.
An absolute statement is met with an absolute dismissal when any part of that statement is proven wrong. That’s how debate works, champ.
As for the rest of your thoughts on the matter: I do not care. You do not rank.
Seriously dude wtf are you smoking and where can I get some?
Has the US been following a geopolitical strategy of destabilizing the Middle East for the past 70 years? Yes or no?
Define "held their own". You claim that you proved they haven't always held their own. You need to define the term first in order to prove the claim.
You are an absolute clown 🤡