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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern Atlantic: A low-latitude tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Blake/Mahoney

000 WTNT31 KNHC 291438 TCPAT1

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JOYCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...21.6N 48.5W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 48.5 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north anticipated on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Joyce is likely to start weakening later today and could become a tropical depression on Monday and a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$ Forecaster Blake

000 WTNT35 KNHC 291435 TCPAT5

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS SURROUND THE HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...43.2N 35.6W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 35.6 West. Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued weakening is forecast over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and an upstream deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$ Forecaster Mahoney/Papin

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (WRIC) — A CSX freight train derailment caused delays and the cancellation of two Amtrak trains on Saturday evening.

According to a CSX spokesperson, at around 2 p.m. on Saturday, Sept 28. a CSX train derailed after it struck two trees on the mainline tracks near Denbigh Boulevard and Richneck Road in Newport News.

NORFOLK, Va. (WAVY) — A local man was sentenced to 26 years behind bars in Norfolk Circuit Court Friday in connection to a 2022 murder-carjacking in Ocean View.

Kenneth Yates, 45, pleaded guilty to second-degree murder, use of a firearm, possession of a firearm by a felon and grand larceny (auto) on June 10. Yates’ first-degree murder charge was ultimately dismissed as part of the plea deal.

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — The third man swept up by an unexpected current at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront on September 21, who spent several days in a coma after washing ashore, has died, his brother told News 3.

Guilmer Joselino was at the beach with his two brothers, Sergio Olcot Ajbal and Santos Olcot Ajbal, and friend Sergio Xinico around 8:30 p.m. Saturday near 16th Street when one of them was caught by a wave.

PORTSMOUTH, Va. — Police in Portsmouth say they're investigating an incident that left one woman shot and two others hit by a vehicle.

Investigators say they were called to London Boulevard just west of Effingham Road just before 2 a.m. on Sunday.

SUFFOLK, Va. — A massive Spectrum internet and cable outage caused by Hurricane Helene has been impacting customers in Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina, a representative from Spectrum's parent company told News 3.

Homes and businesses in Hampton Roads, Western Tidewater and northeastern North Carolina began reporting the outages on Friday, according to outage detection website downdetector.com.

FRANKLIN, Va. — A Suffolk man is dead after he was shot and then crashed a car into a house in Franklin, according to a press release from the chief of police.

The victim, 37-year-old Davon Davis, was found at the scene on Dorchester Street around 3 a.m. after he was apparently shot and drove the car into the house. He died at the scene.

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — A 26-year-old man and 16-year-old boy are in the hospital fighting for their lives after a wrong-way crash on I-264 in Virginia Beach Friday night, Virginia State Police said.

Davian Wallace, 26, was driving eastbound in the westbound lanes in a Chrysler 200 just before midnight Friday when he struck the 16-year-old, driving a 2024 Kia Soul, head on, police said.

HAMPTON, Va. - Hampton University's Proton Cancer Institute had a long line of men out the front door Saturday morning — waiting to be screen for prostate cancer and learn better ways to get healthy.

The Institute's third annual Prostate Cancer and Men's Health Awareness Fair saw more than 400 sign up in advance, organizers told News 3.

The fair partnered the institute with more than a dozen vendors and saw that men would have the chance to be screened for cancer through a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test.

000 WTNT32 KWNH 091436 TCPAT2

BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 44 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

...BERYL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...FLASH FLOODING AND A RISK OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MID MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...35.8N 91.2W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...

• Northern Arkansas
• Central and Southern Missouri
• Illinois
• Far Western Kentucky
• Northern Indiana
• Southern Michigan

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to slowly decrease in forward speed as the system moves into Canada.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley, including parts of Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northwest Tennessee, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys into the Great Lakes today into Wednesday and over northern New York and northern New England Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Taylor/Roth