New Zealand hasn't lost a match to another OFC opponent since 2012, when they lost 2-0 to New Caledonia in the OFC Nations Cup semi-finals. (The second goal was scored at 90+3.)
They also lost to Fiji in 2008 in the OFC Nations Cup, in the last match after they had already won the title. And then, their previous loss was when Australia was still in the association.
They could lose, but they might be the surest bet of any team to qualify for the World Cup (that isn't a host).
Given that the accounts are over a three year period it's more like being penalized twice for screwing up the same year.