Yeah, that's what I was gonna say, I think it comes down to whether swimming is the first event. If it is, the shark wins (because I forfeit).
Assuming we're talking about an actually dangerous type of shark and not one of the many many harmless shark species.
I do not believe in 'undecided' voters. I don't think they exist.
So this is not going to be decided by then. This is going to be decided very simply: will enough people in the right states bother to vote?