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LLMs do sometimes hallucinate even when giving summaries. I.e. they put things in the summaries that were not in the source material. Bing did this often the last time I tried it. In my experience, LLMs seem to do very poorly when their context is large (e.g. when "reading" large or multiple articles). With ChatGPT, it's output seems more likely to be factually correct when it just generates "facts" from it's model instead of "browsing" and adding articles to its context.

Statistically, some working mothers will answer the phone and finish the survey. If the survey was done correctly, and sampling bias and all that is accounted for, 1800 respondents is plenty to get a good representative picture of Americans. Surveys can work very well; even when using non-ideal survey methods.

Anecdotally, this survey seems to align pretty well with the people I know. E.g. people complaining about a pie costing something like 30% more than 5 years ago, while their income doubled or tripled in that same timeframe. Help-wanted signs in my area seem to be advertising wages around 50% more than 2019 as well.

Republicans almost never fail to fall in line for their party. This is probably why the party is so politically effective. I wonder if it has something to do with their worldview and belief in hierarchy. Or, maybe they just don't want to be exiled and unable to continue their grifts.

you can buy a house even on a median salary or lower.

I think think this very regionally dependant. Median household income and house cost in Austin, for example, is ~$70k and ~$650k, respectively. I grew up in a very small rural town, very far from any cities, and even though houses were much cheaper, they were still unaffordable to most people unless they could land one of the few available union jobs (most jobs available were in manufacturing and paid near minimum wage).

Things may be getting better, slightly, for the median person, but inequality is soaring, and a more dangerous problem IMO. Money is power, so inequality is a direct threat to democracy. It's also inequality, not poverty, that has the largest effect on crime rates, and social decohesion in general.

I guess most of what I've heard from her wasn't "bad," but it wasn't "good," I'd describe it as just "uninteresting." It'd probably start annoying me if I had to listen to a full album of hers, because it's not the type of music I enjoy at all.

I believe he's a devout Christo-fascist. I think only a special kind of devout Christian could come up with the porn accountability scheme with his son. He's a "lying for the lord" kind of person.

Legal immigration in the U.S. is heavily restricted with extremely low caps that aren't even high enough to support our agriculture industry. I personally think this is on purpose so that industry can easily underpay and exploit undocumented workers. And yes, the economy would collapse without the all the undocumented workers; the "age" of our population is quite high. Here's an article from a very conservative think tank (which I normally wouldn't trust) that describes the situation: Why Legal Immigration Is Nearly Impossible.

Anyways, it's futile trying to stop immigration. Desperate people will take desperate actions to improve the lives of themselves and their families. It will only get worse as the climate changes causes drought, famine, and otherwise unlivable conditions in parts of the world.

IDK, I think it's going to be very close. Quite a few people I know who disliked Trump over Biden in the last election now favor Trump. Many are in demographics you wouldn't expect. Most never vote though.

Trump is doing slightly better in the polls than Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

People's money are on Trump winning (slightly): https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-chances-beating-joe-biden-six-months-before-election-day-1897978

https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1715838452989

That's not realistic under current conditions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo

It has happened once when the Republican Party supplanted the Whig party, right before the civil war; but I doubt that could happen again with the "advances" of media, polling, and propaganda (and if Trump wins, I doubt the U.S. will have fair elections again). There's no other "big tent" party like the Democratic party; so a left-leaning third party could only just siphon off a fraction of the votes from the Democratic Party, ensuring Republican victory. We have two-party rule because when people act rationally in FPTP electoral systems, that's what happens (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law).

Though, I'd argue that MAGA supplanted the Republican party from within. That seems like the most viable option for progressives (supplanting the Democratic party from within).

Technically speaking the best move for me as a white male would be to support Trump.

That's a bold assumption.

Some men, you just can't reach

4o scores worse on some benchmarks than 4. 4o is just faster and uses less resources.