this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2024
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Electric Vehicles

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EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.

Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.

This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.

In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.

Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.

It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Bought a Tesla last week and I love it. Quality is flawless (unlike what the media likes to write about) and it's saving me a ton of cash by not buying fuel. Charging at home is so damned simple and convenient. I can't imagine every driving an ICE vehicle.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 6 days ago

I paid a visit to Ford's Henry Ford Museum and did the factory tour. It's an absolutely great museum full of industrial progress throughout the ages, however it does mostly center on the American side of things. Highly recommend a visit, it will take you all day to see everything. Anyway, the factory tour is definitely Ford Propaganda, especially for the F150, and they do discuss the EV market which is massively smaller than the ICE truck market, however every single EV truck is sold before it leaves the factory. There's no inventory sitting around. I imagine that's partly due to production line issues like materials availability, but nonetheless the demand is there for EV, even trucks.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 days ago

They definitely are way down, in Germany.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 days ago

One of the key reasons traditional manufacturers were reluctant to build EVs is because of the batteries needed and their lack of ability to make these themselves. A battery on a brand new EV can be half or more of the total cost to build the car, who wants to pay somebody else, who is going to expect to make a profit on the batteries they sell, half the cost of the build to a competitor or third party for any true mass market car? You cannot start to compete on price or volume till you make your own batteries and cut out that profit of the third party.

When it became clear that the Traditional Manufacturers could no longer avoid ramping up EV production as Tesla and latter China/Korea were stealing their future market they have shit the bed, begging for subsidies to build their own battery factories and recruiting staff with experience. Its going to take a few years before these factories come on line, but till then you will see them pushing things like PHEVs and halo EVs like the F150 that they do not plan in selling in large volumes in favor of ICE that they make the engine.

There is also an element of the speed of development of EVs, they were clearly caught out how fast the market moved with efficiency and thus range. As an example, the early VW group EVs were awful, at least a generation behind the best from Korea or Tesla. The latest ID7 and A6 etrons show that VW have acknowledged their mistake, the saloons made on that platform (the SUVs on the same platform just cannot compete due to worse drag and weight) seem to be aiming around 4 miles per kwh, which is extremely impressive for such large saloons.

Improving efficiency is the key to reducing battery sizes, which reduces weight, which further improves efficiency, but most importantly reduces the cost of EVs. We need to move away from 100kwh+ batteries, they are a crutch for inefficient, bricks of SUVs that are far too large and heavy. Manufacturers just up the battery size to counter their poor design decisions, which leads to disappointment when you realize you struggling to get 2 miles per kwh from your 2.5 ton EV9 and its only doing low 200s out of a 100kwh battery.

[–] [email protected] 78 points 1 week ago (14 children)

Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn't have enough charging stations available yet.

While going over the paperwork for the financing, the paperwork guy was talking about how the car company keeps pushing them to order EVs for their lot but they keep refusing. They don't want to sell EVs because they think people don't want them, because they think it just "won't ever work" - so now I think that there may be other car dealers like that who are holding back what options consumers may have in there area. I had to drive 100 miles to buy the PHEV I wanted, none nearby.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 days ago

part of me wonders if they think they can just 'wait this whole Eeee-veee thing out'.

fucking idiots

[–] [email protected] 54 points 1 week ago (20 children)

Until they make electric vehicles that need as much maintenance and repairs as ICEs car dealers will of course oppose them.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 days ago (2 children)

We got a Toyota bz4x (we got a very good deal on it, and I wouldn't recommend it unless you also get a good deal), and the official maintenance schedule is ridiculous and clearly unnecessary. Every 5k miles, you're intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight, and the floor mats are in place. That's about it. And it'll pop up a "Maintenance Required" warning on the dash to tell you, and it stays there until you get it done.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Every 5k miles, you’re intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight

I have 2 EVs (A Hyundai Kona and a BYD Seal), both don't check the battery coolant until 60,000 kilometers - either toyota doesn't trust their battery system or your dealer is taking you for a ride

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 days ago

It's official from Toyota's maintenance schedule. They're pretty obviously dumbing up things for dealerships, yes.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Everything on that list is needed in ICE cars as well - don't let them change the oil though, 5kmiles for oil changes is far too short and actually harmful to the engine (your least engine wear is around 8k miles on modern oils)

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

That information is also wrong. Your oil should be changed when it needs it. Almost every car I owned cooked the oil by 4000 miles... and only the Corolla could stretch to 7000. Full synthetic on every vehicle. Frequent oil changes only hurt your wallet, not the engine.

This is even more important on GDI and forced induction engines (my last two), which cook the oil faster due to the higher compression and temperatures the engines run at. When the oil is cooked, the additive package is broken down and the oil doesn't do the cool stuff (cleaning the engine, thickening when hot so it still lubricates) that keeps the engine happy. Also sludge.

For GDI, you need to regularly (before 12,000 miles) clean the intake valves, since the fuel systen does not. That'll hurt the engine more.

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[–] [email protected] 53 points 1 week ago (8 children)

Thank you this royally pisses me off whenever I hear it from Ford or Chevy. They could be selling like hotcakes but they much rather go back to their cash cows and the oil industry to milk.

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